NRL Tips – Roosters v Knights

The NRL Grand Final sees the Sydney Roosters return to the decider for the first time since 2019 while the Newcastle Knights stunningly play in their first big one in a quarter century.

Best Bet

Roosters -6.5

Line

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$1.90

Few foresaw this season’s NRL decider – at the start of the season and at the start of the finals – with the Sydney Roosters set to meet the Newcastle Knights. The Knights won the wooden spoon last year and are looking to become the first team in nearly a century to win the title a year after claiming the wooden spoon. They finished seventh on the ladder with no team winning from outside the Top 4 since Canterbury did so in 1995.

The road ahead for the Knights is incredibly difficult even on the back of a fairytale finals run that has seen them roll the Rabbitohs, Warriors and Panthers as big outsiders in consecutive weeks. No team ranked as low defensively has won a title in the last two decades while the six teams to have made a Grand Final from outside the Top 4 since 2005 have lost by an average of 18.5 points. Three have lost by at least 24. The closest margin was seven.

This is a spot the Sydney Roosters – a far superior team to Newcastle – should thrive in.

Defence is the best indicator for premiership success and the Roosters had the third best defence this season. Over the last 22 seasons, the premiers have ranked in the top three defensive teams 19 times.

The Roosters have dominated this matchup, winning 20 of the last 23 meetings. They have covered eight of the last 11.

The Roosters are 33-26 ATS against teams ranked seventh or worse while underdogs of more than a converted try are 7-13 ATS across the last three finals.

Trent Robinson’s team have a talent advantage, a situational advantage and an experience advantage. They can be bet with complete confidence.

Same Game Multi

Under 42.5 Points/Robert Toia Try/Mark Nawaqanitawase Try

Same Game Multi

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$12.00

The under has hit in over 66% of games played under lights this season with the under 12-5 when the Chooks play at night and 18-12 when the Knights play off a win of seven or more.

Newcastle have conceded 43% of tries down their left so attention is focused on the Sydney Roosters left.

Robert Toia is in elite form with a try in each of his last five games. He has now scored in nine of his last 12 appearances.

Mark Nawaqanitawase is set to play his final game in the NRL. He has 43 tries in 45 games. He has five tries across the last three weeks. He has two tries in three games against the Knights.

Value Bet

Reece Robson

To Score A Try

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$9.25

Hookers have a tremendous tryscoring record in the Grand Final with rakes scoring in four of the last seven Grand Finals including crossing first in two of the last three. And it has not only been tryscoring rakes like Harry Grant but non-scorers like Mitch Kenny, Sam Verrills and Cameron Smith. Reece Robson doesn’t score out of turn but he does have three tries this year and 28 over the course of his career. Newcastle are vulnerable through the middle. Robson is a bet to score and score first.

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Editor-In-Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.