The Knights have no business being such short-priced favourites against the Tigers even factoring in their Round 1 win.
Best Bet
Wests Tigers +7.5 ($1.90)
When looking for an example of recency bias in the NRL, look no further than the Knights being favoured by 7.5 points in Round 2 after being off the map to win the wooden spoon in the offseason. One impressive win against an underdone Roosters side does not make a big favourite.
The Knights have covered just 7 of 17 when favoured by more than than a converted try and make the nut at just 43% in day games.
The Tigers have a good record against the Knights. They have won 7 of 10 against the Knights and covered 5 of 7. The Tigers have also covered 5 of 7 getting more than a converted try.
Lay the Knights. Take the points.
Same Game Multi
Wests Tigers/Under 44.5/Daine Laurie Try ($10.25)
The Tigers are monster overs this week against the Knights and can win at a big price.
The under hits at 59% when an underdog of more than a converted try covered last game. Under 12-5 when Newcastle are favoured by more than a converted try.
Daine Laurie has scored seven tries in his last 17 games.
Value Bet
Luciano Leilua Try ($4.50)
Leilua has started four times against Newcastle and has scored twice. He has scored 12 tries in 45 games for the Tigers. Last season he scored three tries against bottom four teams.
