NFL Tips - Broncos @ Chiefs

Kansas City were dethroned as AFC West champs by Denver last year and will be desperate to start reclaiming the crown in Week 1 on Monday Night Football.

Best Bet

Broncos +2.5

Line

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$1.90

The Broncos are a very appealing bet here against a Chiefs team with plenty of question marks.

Denver went 5-0-1 against the number as underdogs last season, the best mark in the league, and Kansas City went 4-9-1 as favourites, the fifth worst.

The Broncos have won the last three meetings and swept the series last year, including at Arrowhead. Admitted, Mahomes only played in only one of those three, but it does feel like the balance of power in the division has shifted

This is the wrong week to be laying points with Mahomes. He comes off an ACL tear with no live reps. Left tackle Josh Simmons is out, which leaves a makeshift Kansas City O-line protecting his blind side against a defence that recorded a franchise-record 68 sacks last season and became the first team in history with 60 or more in consecutive years.

If Mahomes mobility is compromised, this could get ugly.

Kansas City averaged 21.8 points a game last season, their lowest since 2012, and Mahomes completed a career-low 62.7% at 7.1 yards an attempt.

Bo Nix is back from the ankle, Jaylen Waddle joins Courtland Sutton, and Denver’s line conceded just 23 sacks all year.

The upset is well and truly on the cards here.

Same Game Multi

Broncos +2.5, Waddle TD, Mahomes Rushing Yards Under 20.5

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$6.00

Waddle is off a down season but has scored 26 TDs in his career and comes into a terrific offensive situation with Sean Payton designing plays and Bo Nix throwing the ball.

Mahomes is off an ACL so expect his scrambling to be very much curtailed, and the ball to be coming out quickly.

Value Bet

Jaylen Waddle

First TD Scorer

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$11.50

Waddle arrives from Miami as the piece Denver were missing and Kansas City have lost Chamarri Conner for this one. Sean Payton will have something drawn up for him early.

Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.