NFL Tips - Bills @ Texans

Houston project as an elite defensive team in 2026 and with the Buffalo offense set to be somewhat rejigged with the change at head coach, the under looks a quality play.

Best Bet

Under 44.5

Total Points

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$1.90

It is hard to like anything more than the under in this cracking Week 1 matchup between two teams favoured to win their respective divisions.

The under hits at over 69% in Weeks 1-3 when a home underdog is in play the last five seasons.

The under is also 28-12 in Week 1 games when the total is 45 or lower.

There are some huge under angles here for the Texans. The under is 17-3-1 in Houston games when the total is north of 44. The under is 35-21-1 since Demeco Ryans has taken over. The under is 23-10 when CJ Stroud plays indoors.

Expect this to be one of the lowest scoring games of the weekend.

Same Game Multi

Woody Marks 30+ Rush Yards/Dawson Knox Over 13.5 Receiving Yards/Kayshon Boutte Over 24.5 Receiving Yards

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$6.00

Woody Marks is set to play the lightning to David Montgomery’s thunder this year. He will get carries despite the recruitment of Montgomery.

Dawson Knox has 23-plus yards in 10 of his last 12 – with Dalton Kincaid playing six of those.

Kayshon Boutte joins from the Patriots as a versatile receiver who projects to be their top possession man underneath.

Value Bet

Khalil Shakir

50+ Receiving Yards

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$3.00

Khalil Shakir figures to play a major role in this game against the aggressive and highly effective Texans defence. The Texans are wonderful against the run while there just will not be time for long routes to develop. That should see Shakir get plenty of targets with opportunities to run after the catch. Shakir topped 50 yards seven times last season.

Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.