NFL Tips - Dolphins @ Raiders

The Raiders had the first overall pick last year, and the Dolphins are favoured to ‘win’ it in 2026.

Best Bet

Dolphins +3.5

Line

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$1.90

Las Vegas are laying a field goal and a half having just lost the only player on their roster who scares anyone.

Brock Bowers is out after knee surgery, which leaves Kirk Cousins throwing to Michael Mayer and a bunch of NPCs.

Cousins ranked 27th of 33 qualified quarterbacks in EPA per dropback last season, tied with Bryce Young, and he managed that in Atlanta with Bijan Robinson and Drake London around him. There is nothing close to that here.

Miami are a genuine rebuild with thirteen rookies on the active roster, but they have the two most explosive runners in the game. Since 2023 De’Von Achane leads all 74 backs with 150 or more carries in yards per carry at 5.62 and explosive run rate at 16.6%, and Malik Willis ranks first among quarterbacks in explosive run rate at 33.3%.

Expect the Dolphins to keep this within a field goal.

Same Game Multi

Dolphins +3.5, Willis 40+ Rushing Yards, Jeanty 55+ Rushing Yards

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$6.50

Klint Kubiak’s first priority will be getting number one pick Fernando Mendoza ready for when he eventually starts, but unlocking Jeanty will be a clear second.

Malik Willis is a terrific scrambler and expect some designed runs as well for the Dolphins QB.

Value Bet

Devon Achane

First TD Scorer

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$5.50

Achane is the key to the Dolphins offence and his game breaking speed makes him a threat to score from any part of the field.

Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.