Saluting as our $4 value bet only two days ago, an Atlanta big enters Saturday as our best bet with little movement to his lines.
Best Bet
Atlanta Hawks @ Philadelphia 76ers (11:10am)
It’s insane we’re still getting these lines for Okongwu despite his recent form plus the fact Clint Capela is still out of this Atlanta lineup.
Okongwu now averages 18 points and 7.5 rebounds in his four games without Capela this season, covering the 21.5 PR in three of those games, but he’s doing this against quality opposition in Boston, Cleveland, the Clippers and 76ers.
He faces the 76ers again, recording 19 points and 11 rebounds last time they met, with Philadelphia the second easiest team for centres to rebound against over the last three weeks at 14% above average.
With Okongwu averaging 16.5 points and 9.25 rebounds in the eight games he’s played over 30 minutes this season, expect another strong cover here.
SGM – Murray 20+ Points / Johnson 15+ Points / Okongwu Over 12.5 Points = $5.00
Next Best
Houston Rockets @ Toronto Raptors (11:40am)
Like his twin brother at Detroit, Amen Thompson is a rebounding machine and is starting for this Rockets team in the absence of Fred VanVleet.
Of all players in the NBA averaging at least 19 minutes over the last month, Thompson is ranked 21st in the competition for rebounds per 36 minutes with 11.6 per game – easily ranked 1 of all guards.
Thompson has only played 30+ minutes twice this season, but he’ll be doing this again against the Raptors – from those two games he averages 14 points, 13.5 rebounds and 5.5 assists.
With the Raptors conceding assists to point guards 16% above average over the last three weeks, Thompson could threaten a triple double paying $26.
SGM – Green 20+ Points / Thompson 8+ Rebounds / Quickley Under 6.5 Assists = $5.50
Value Bet
Washington Wizards @ Boston Celtics (11:40am)
With Gafford traded to Dallas and Bagley still out injured, the Wizards will really lack size when they come up against the Celtics.
But someone will have to rebound in this Washington team, with Boston conceding 47 rebounds per game since January 15 – the second worst in the NBA only behind the Wizards themselves.
Avdija has had some good results against the Celtics in recent times. The second last time they met he recorded 25 points and 10 rebounds, while in their only match-up this season he managed 11 points and 7 rebounds in just 22 minutes. Averaging close to 7 rebounds per game over the last two months, I expect him to push 30 minutes this time around which puts the double-double into calculation.
SGM – Wizards +16.5 / Kuzma Over 21.5 Points / Avdija 8+ Rebounds = $5.50
Saturday NBA Multi
Hawks / Nuggets / Pelicans = $5.94
