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It’s a late Friday afternoon NBA slate with three games on the agenda, headlined by the red-hot Sacramento Kings looking to make it eight from their last ten against the Spurs.
Best Bet
Spurs @ Kings (2:00pm)
These are the Kings we expected to see this season, winning seven of their last nine including their last four games, and it’s led by De’Aaron Fox.
Fox appears to have more trust in his teammates and Mike Brown’s system compared to earlier in the season, which has correlated with Sacramento’s success – the Point Guard averaged just 4.7 assists from his first seven games of the season, but in his last five he’s averaged 8.6 covering the 6.5 assists line in his last four.
With point guards producing assists 10% above average against the Spurs over the last four weeks, we should see Fox covering the line of 6.5.
Next Best
Nets @ Trail Blazers (2:00pm)
With Damian Lillard back in this Portland team, we get quite a low line for Anfernee Simons of 20.5 points and one he should have no trouble covering.
Simons averages 22.3 points per game this season and has covered the line of 20.5 points in six of his last seven games. It appears he’s starting to figure out how to play with Lillard by his side, and from their last six together Simons averages 22.3 points covering in four of the six games.
The attempts remain there for Simons, and with the Nets the second easiest team for shooting guards to score against over the last four weeks at 15% above average, we should see another productive game from the combo guard.
Value Bet
Spurs @ Kings (2:00pm)
Poeltl’s last game against Portland was simply enormous, recording 31 points, 14 rebounds and 5 assists, combining for a PRA of 50.
The Trail Blazers have been the second easiest team for centres to score against over the last four weeks at a huge 52% above average, but now Jakob Poeltl faces the easiest team in the Sacramento Kings.
The Kings concede points to centres 58% above average over the last four weeks and are also the easiest team for centres to generate assists against 38% above average. If Poeltl can manage a PRA of 50 against Portland, he should be able to manage 30+ paying $2.29 against Sacramento.
Friday NBA Multi
Trail Blazers/Clippers/Kings = $2.89
