The British Isles Swing moves to Wales this week and the fabled Celtic Manor and it is an Englishman who looks best placed to claim an important DP World Tour win.
Best Bet
It would be near-impossible for Jordan Smith to profile any better for this tournament. To succeed you need to be strong off the tee, have an elite iron game and be able to score on Par 5s and Par 3s. Smith leads the Tour in Strokes Gained: Off The Tee, GIR and Par 5 Scoring while he ranks Top 20 in Driving Distance, Par 3 Scoring, Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Tee To Green. Finished Top 25 in five of six starts.
Mid-Tier Bet
South African Nienaber is a beast off the tee and he gets a big advantage on this long, wide-open course. Nienaber leads the Tour in Driving Distance and ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off The Tee while he ranks 12th in Par 5 Scoring. The best guide to this course is the Portugal Masters and he posted a Top 15 in the 2020 version. Two Top 21s in his last three starts.
Value Bet
Edoardo Molinari has a very nice record here with two Top 5 finishes from his last five starts. Has four Top 25 finishes in his last seven tournaments. Finished Top 25 in the Portugal Masters last year. Ranks Top 15 in Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Tee To Green and GIR.
Longshot Bet
South African playing some nice golf with a 14th last week and three Top 14 finishes in his last seven starts. Played twice here and has a Top 15 finish. Also finished Top 15 in the 2019 Portugal Masters. Ranks Top 20 in GIR and Strokes Gained: Tee To Green.
