Adelaide head to the SCG on Friday night as genuine underdogs but with a defensive profile that makes them a compelling play with the start.
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Best Bet
The Crows look a great bet getting close to a two-goal start here.
There has been a significant difference in these teams’ defensive output over the last ten weeks. Adelaide have returned to their defensive best, conceding just 69.6 points per game through that period – ranked first. Sydney are far more leaky, ranked fourteenth for points conceded at 93.3 per game over the same stretch. Both teams have faced similar opposition, with the Swans playing five top-eight teams and the Crows four in their last ten games.
Sydney are still in a strong position for top two but their form against the elite is a concern, having failed to cover in four of their last five against top-eight teams. The Crows have gone the other way, covering in four of five against top-eight opposition while keeping those games tight, averaging just 160.5 total points against a competition average of 180.5.
If Adelaide can get the game on their terms and keep the scoring down, they should remain within a couple of goals.
Same Game Multi
Adelaide’s games against top-eight teams have been low-scoring, with six of seven going under.
Sam Berry has had 20 or more disposals in nine of his last ten games and inside midfielders perform well against Sydney.
The Swans are the second best match-up for small forwards over the last five weeks and Josh Rachele should find space against a defence that has been leaking goals.
Value Bet
Rachele has kicked three or more goals in three of his last five games including his most recent game against Sydney. Adelaide possess a deadly forward combination and the Swans’ inability to contain small forwards over the last five weeks makes this a strong play.
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