AFL Tips – Geelong v St Kilda

St Kilda sniff a wildcard position when they head to GMHBA Stadium on Thursday night against a Geelong side that has been one of the competition’s most disappointing teams over the last month.

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Best Bet

St Kilda +10.5

Line

Bet Now

$1.90

The Saints are a great bet with the start here.

St Kilda have enjoyed this match-up from a betting perspective, covering in seven of eight against Geelong including the last two at GMHBA Stadium and winning two of the last three outright. The Saints have also been going in the right direction, winning three of their last four and covering in four of their last five. They should be unchanged after a dominant performance against Port Adelaide.

Geelong look to be in trouble in 2026, winning only one of their last six and covering in just two. Jeremy Cameron is a huge out for a team already ranked tenth for points over the last five weeks. The Saints are no longer the stodgy Ross Lyon side of old, averaging 92.6 points over the last five weeks ranked sixth, so Geelong will need to put a good score on to win here.

The Saints can sniff a wildcard position and are a great bet with the start.

Same Game Multi

St Kilda +10.5, B.Hill 25+ Disposals, L.Humphries 20+ Disposals, O.Dempsey Anytime Goal

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$5.25

Outside midfielders perform well against Geelong and Brad Hill is enjoying the best disposal run of his career, clearing 35 in three straight games. Lawson Humphries has been a reliable 20-disposal accumulator and half-backs against St Kilda remains a strong angle.

Ollie Dempsey may spend more time forward in Cameron’s absence and has kicked five goals in his last two games.

Value Bet

B.Hill 35+ Disposals

Player Disposals

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$4.50

Can Hill do it again? The veteran has had 39, 43 and 37 touches in his last three weeks as he takes on a bigger ball-handling role in Jack Sinclair’s absence. Geelong are the third best match-up for outside midfielders and as long as there is no tag, another monster game looks well within range.

Betseeker’s expert tipsters have you covered for the best AFL tips, predictions, same-game multis, and more, for each game of the 2026 AFL season.

Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.

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