AFL Tips – Carlton v Hawthorn

Carlton host Hawthorn at the MCG on Saturday night with rain forecast to shape the contest as the Blues chase an eighth straight win.

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Best Bet

Under 167.5 Points

Total Points

Bet Now

$1.90

The under looks a chips-in bet here with multiple trends pointing the same way.

The under in Blues games at the MCG has been one of the most reliable trends in the competition, hitting in 17 of the last 19. Since Josh Fraser took over, six of seven games have gone under at an average of just 153.9 points. His revival has been built on renewed defensive focus and that has translated directly into low-scoring games.

Rain is forecast throughout Saturday afternoon and evening with up to 10 millimetres expected in Melbourne. Since 2010, 70 per cent of rain-affected games have gone under the total.

With five of the last six between these teams going under, back a low-scoring game with confidence.

Same Game Multi

Carlton +11.5, Under 167.5 Points, N.Newman 20+ Disposals, O.Florent 20+ Disposals

Bet Now

$4.75

Carlton’s revival is real and their games have been consistently tight. Hawthorn have failed to cover the line in six straight at the MCG, making the Blues a reasonable inclusion with the start in what could be a very tight game.

Half-backs are a great bet against Hawthorn. Nic Newman and Ollie Florent should both fill up.

Value Bet

J.Ginnivan 2+ Goals

Player Goals

Bet Now

$3.50

Small forwards tend to be advantaged by wet conditions and with Nick Watson out, Jack Ginnivan may get more opportunity in front of the sticks. He has kicked two in each of his last two games and looks a strong play at $3.50.

Betseeker’s expert tipsters have you covered for the best AFL tips, predictions, same-game multis, and more, for each game of the 2026 AFL season.

Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.

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