Hawthorn was exposed last week and this matchup offers no respite
Best Bet
Melbourne -25.5 ($1.90)
The Demons went within a hair’s breadth of covering against the Tigers last week despite awful kicking for goal. While they are down some players due to covid, they should be too good for the Hawks.
Last week’s game against Sydney encapsulated this Hawks side. They were efficient when getting fast ball inside 50 early, but as the opposition began to dominate contested possession and clearances, they eventually succumbed to weight of numbers.
Melbourne has won the inside 50 count by an average of 15 per game in each of the last four rounds. While their forward line has been inefficient at times, they make up for it through sheer weight of numbers.
Against a Hawks side that ranks last for clearance differential, they will get plenty of opportunities once again. This is a bad matchup for Hawthorn and the Dees should cover – despite their covid issues – easily.
Same Game Multi
Melbourne -25.5 / C.Oliver 30+ / T.Bedford 1+ Goals ($5.00)
Hawthorn struggles at the contested and clearance aspect of the game and there is none better at both than Clayton Oliver. He had 41 last week and should feast again. Bedford will play the designated small forward role in the absence of Kozzy Pickett.
Value Bet
Jackson Callow, first/last goal, $41
Callow is a tall forward on debut who has been hitting the scoreboard consistently at the lower level. It’s a tough introduction to AFL footy for him against the league’s leading defence but he’s worth a small bet at massive odds for the first and/or last goal.
