AFL Tips - Coleman Medal 2026 Tips

Jeremy Cameron ran away with the 2025 Coleman Medal, winning by a significant margin and setting a clear standard among key forwards, but an interrupted preseason has the potential to bring him back toward the pack. That uncertainty has tightened the market around Charlie Curnow, Ben King and Sam Darcy, who share favouritism heading into 2026. With the dominant figure now facing a less-than-perfect preparation, this year’s Coleman race shapes as a far more open contest.

Best Bet

Charlie Curnow

Coleman Medal

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$5.00

Charlie Curnow at $5.50 appeals strongly for a third Coleman as long as he is able to remain on the park. He looks strong after a complete preseason with his new club and now becomes the focal point in a Sydney side that has been crying out for a genuine inside 50 target.

The Swans have elite ball users in Errol Gulden, Chad Warner and Isaac Heeney who can deliver quality supply. In a side expected to win enough games, the path to a 70-plus goal season is clear.

Next Best

Jeremy Cameron

Coleman Medal

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$10.00

Jeremy Cameron won last year’s Coleman by 14 goals in a dominant campaign, yet he now sits fourth in betting after an injury-interrupted preseason.

He appears set to line up in Round 1, but Geelong open against Gold Coast, Fremantle, Adelaide and Hawthorn in what shapes as a demanding first month. That stretch could limit his early returns and create a better betting opportunity. Monitor Cameron’s price closely across the opening rounds as he builds match fitness, as he may get out to a juicy price once the schedule softens.

Lay

Ben King

Coleman Medal

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$7.00

Ben King sits near the top of the market, but there are enough red flags to tread carefully. There are still unknowns around how the Suns structure their forward line and whether Jamarra Ugle-Hagan and Jed Walter will eat into his opportunity.

King also ran at an unsustainably high level of accuracy last season, finishing with 71.23 – largely because most of his shots were taken very close to goal. That conversion rate is difficult to replicate over multiple years, and some natural regression should be expected. At a short price, too many variables sit against him.

Larkey / Georgiades / McKay

Coleman Medal

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N/A

History is clear when it comes to the Coleman. Since 2002, no winner has come from a side that finished 12th or lower. Forwards in struggling teams simply do not generate the shot volume required across a full season. Unless their clubs outperform expectations significantly, it is difficult to build a serious case for any of these players.

Value Bet

Aaron Naughton

Coleman Medal

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$34.00

Aaron Naughton at $34 stands out as genuine value. He finished with 60 goals last season to place fourth in the Coleman, including an extraordinary 42 across his final 11 games, all played alongside Sam Darcy. During that stretch Darcy kicked 28 himself, which underlines that the pairing does not cap Naughton’s output.

Preseason signs suggest the Bulldogs will again be one of the competition’s most dangerous attacking sides. With new ruck rules likely to demand genuine second ruck options, Darcy could spend around 20% of his time in the middle. While much of the attention sits on his much hyped teammate, Naughton looks a better Coleman bet at this price.

Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.