AFL Round 10 begins with the match of the round between two genuine top four contenders at Marvel.
Best Bet
As the market suggests, it’s difficult to separate Carlton and Sydney in this clash but the home side’s strength in the middle can prove the difference here.
The Blues are smashing teams around the pill. They are ranked #2 for clearance differential at +5.9 per game, ranked #2 for contested possession differential at +16.2 and are clearly the #1 team for scoring from centre clearances, recording 11.9 more points per game than their opposition. The Swans are outside the top six for all these metrics.
Patrick Cripps and former Swan George Hewitt are both ranked in the top six contested possession players in the AFL this season, and in the top three for centre bounce clearances.
Sydney don’t have a player ranked inside 25 for these stats and will also have to overcome a poor recent record at Marvel. They’ve only cleared the start in three of their last nine at the venue and none of their last seven played at night.
Carlton’s injury list is growing by the week but fortunately for them, their elite on ball brigade has largely remained out on the park together. Carlton should be too tough for the Swans in a tight one.
Who will take home the AFL’s top individual award? Check out our weekly AFL Brownlow Predictor for this week’s leaderboard and our tips.
Same Game Multi
Carlton 1-39pts, P.Cripps 25+ disposals, L.Franklin 2+ Goals ($4.33)
Patrick Cripps has cleared 25 in each match this year, aside from one where he was subbed out with an injury.
Buddy loves playing Carlton, averaging 3.9 goals per game. In his nine games against them in Swans colours, he’s booted 3, 2, 3, 10, 1, 4, 4, 6 & 7. We’ll take him for two here but backing him for a bag as a saver isn’t the worst option.
Value Bet
P.Cripps 35+ Disposals ($4.70)
The Carlton skipper has had 30+ touches in all four home games this year and has racked up 35+ disposals in his last three games at Marvel. Expect another monster game on the big stage from the Brownlow favourite.
