AFL Tips – Carlton v Brisbane Lions

Brisbane head to Marvel Stadium on Saturday night to face a Carlton side that has spent the last two months punching above its weight.

Best Bet

Brisbane Lions -25.5

Line

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$1.90

The Lions are close to impossible to oppose at this ground.

Brisbane are 20-6 against the line at Marvel Stadium across the last 10 years. Against Carlton specifically they have covered in six of the last eight and won eight of the last nine.

They arrive on the back of seven straight wins, each by 22 points or more, and five of those margins were bigger than this line. They have also made a habit of breaking games open after the main break, kicking 14 goals in the second half against Port Adelaide.

Josh Fraser’s improved Blues have benefited from a pretty soft draw. This will be only the third top eight side they have played since he took over, and they lost two of their last three, going down to Collingwood by 21 points and Hawthorn by 64.

Carlton regain Harry McKay but lose Nic Newman, who injured his hamstring in the first term of his 150th game. Brisbane lose Ty Gallop to suspension but have the depth to cover him.

Take the Lions to win big.

Same Game Multi

Brisbane Lions -25.5, K.Lohmann 2+ Goals, W.Ashcroft 30+ Disposals, W.Ashcroft Anytime Goal

Same Game Multi

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$4.50

Kai Lohmann is in red hot form, kicking three or more in four straight games.

Will Ashcroft has passed 30 disposals in six straight and keeps hitting the scoreboard while he does it, kicking 5.8 across his last five.

Value Bet

G.Hewett 2+ Goals

Player Goals

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$6.00

George Hewett is worth backing to hit the scoreboard again.

Hewett has kicked two or more in three of his last five games, including three last week.

Brisbane’s midfield is strong but not especially good defensively against inside mids who push forward, ranked 12th in the competition for conceding goals to that position.

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Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.