Betseeker has you covered for expert AFL tips, same game multis and predictions for every game of the 2024 AFL season.
The 2024 AFL season looks as even as ever, with Collingwood looking to become the first team since Hawthorn’s three-peat to go back-to-back and a host of rivals looking to take the crown, led by Brisbane, GWS, Carlton, St Kilda and Sydney.
Here, Betseeker’s AFL experts Tim Hickman and Joel Smith take a quick look at each team’s prospects in 2024 and whether they will clear their win line, as provided by TopSport.
Adelaide
Tim: Over 12.5 Wins
Beat three of the top four teams last year and their losses against those sides were by 1, 2, 4 and 6. If they can close out close games and avoid losing to teams that should beat easily, they are a legitimate top four contender. Need to be better on the road than their 2-8 record last year.
Joel: Over 12.5 Wins
The Crows will play finals this year after a near flawless rebuild. Scored more points than any other team in 2023 but also conceded the eighth-most, so defensive improvement will dictate how high they jump. A year early to contend but dangerous in September.
Brisbane Lions
Tim: Under 15.5 Wins
Everything that could go right did go right last year – except for the loss of Will Ashcroft – and they still couldn’t win it. The recent record of Grand Final losers is not promising. Too much talent to fall away completely though.
Joel: Over 15.5 Wins
Clear flag favourites. Will win at least 10 out of 11 at home so only need another six or seven wins out of the remaining 13 on the road for a top two finish, a Gabba run in September and another Grand Final berth. Only get stronger with Ashcroft and Doedee.
Carlton
Tim: Under 13.5 Wins
Expectations are sky high following an outstanding second half of the 2024 season. They are not a side that has, historically, dealt with expectations well. They no doubt have the talent to go all the way.
Joel: Over 13.5 Wins
Finalists again but won’t be flag contenders without more avenues to goal with Curnow the only 30+ goal-kicker in 2023. Need McKay to straighten up and the smalls to become more consistent. Early injuries to Weitering and Walsh a worry. Just over but stuffed if Charlie goes down.
Collingwood
Tim: Under 15.5 Wins
Their premiership win was based on intensity and gameplan. If their work rate falls away or they have any complacency, they could easily slide from the best team to an also ran because they don’t boast a significant talent advantage.
Joel: Under 15.5 Wins
No real knock but it’s so difficult to go back-to-back in such an even comp. The loss of McStay hurts from a structure perspective and they are now the oldest list. Again won almost all their close games, surely opposition teams can figure out how by now.
Essendon
Tim: Under 11.5 Wins
Their putrid finish to 2023 should have put a fire though the joint but it looks like the same old Essendon. Not enough toughness or defensive effort when it counts. Will it change in Brad Scott’s second year? I’m skeptical.
Joel: Under 11.5 Wins
The easiest pick by some way. Ranked 15th for defence in ’23 (as they were in Rutten’s last year) and were fortunate not to lose their last seven games after scraping by the Eagles and Roos. McKay, Duursma and Gresham aren’t the answer for a team who lack hardness and competitiveness. The practice game against St Kilda last week was genuinely alarming and they’ve copped a tough draw. Bottom four.
Fremantle
Tim: Over 9.5 Wins
Got a midfield that is good at winning footy but they don’t damage you with it when they do. They need to make Optus Stadium into a fortress if they are to be any hope of advancing up the ladder this season. A 5-7 record at home isn’t good enough.
Joel: Under 9.5 Wins
Have lost so much talent and experience over the last two seasons and have dropped to the fourth-youngest list. The best ten or so players look good but the rest of the 23 will be filled with a lot of kids. Lack run, excitement and goal-kickers.
Geelong
Tim: Under 11.5 Wins
The Cats home record flattered what was a very poor premiership defence. They need to find a way to win away from GMHBA, but with a lot of their best players another year older, it’s hard to see them surging up the ladder.
Joel: Over 11.5 Wins
Nothing would surprise. They should win at least six out of nine again at home and Cameron and Hawkins can win a few off their own boots. Fitness will determine their fate but there’s too much quality and experience on this list here for a total collapse. Just over if the veterans stay healthy.
Gold Coast
Tim: Over 10.5 Wins
Can Dimma work his magic? On paper the Suns have a solid lineup but this isn’t the first time we’ve said that. They were 2-10 against Top 8 opposition last year, and they need to show that they can get it done against quality teams.
Joel: Under 10.5 Wins
The spine and midfield look exceptional but lack the role players that made Dimma’s Tigers so good. Went 2-10 against top eight teams last year so still a work in progress. Look out from 2025.
GWS Giants
Tim: Over 14.5 Wins
Came within a kick of defeating the Premiers in the Preliminary Final after an outstanding second half of the year. Should only be improved in Adam Kingsley’s second season as coach and have the right blend of youth and experience to go a long way.
Joel: Over 14.5 Wins
Hard to see the surprise packet of 2023 dipping with so much quality across the park. Expect an even better season from Briggs while Hogan could finally live up to his potential alongside a very dangerous small forward group. Top four and serious flag contenders.
Hawthorn
Tim: Under 8.5 Wins
There were a lot of promising signs last year but they look like they are a year away from being a year away, especially with the injuries that have hit their defence. Still an excellent betting proposition whenever they play at Launceston
Joel: Under 8.5 Wins
Rebuilds are rarely linear rises and with their already thin key back stocks decimated, a down year could be on the cards. Beat some great teams last year but still had the highest average losing margin behind West Coast and are the second-youngest list. Copped a tough draw too.
Melbourne
Tim: Under 13.5 Wins
It’s been the off season from hell for the Demons. Will they fall away entirely or will their issues galvanise the group. I wish I was confident it would be the latter but there seems to be something not right there. On the field, they need Jacob Van Rooyen to become a 50 goal a year forward.
Joel: Under 13.5 Wins
Anything that could go wrong, has gone wrong in the off-season and while this is still a great list, persistent injuries to an already thin forward line is a major concern. Have a brutal early draw and could be playing catch-up from there. Under and just missing the eight.
North Melbourne
Tim: Over 4.5 Wins
Alistair Clarkson’s first season couldn’t have gone much worse but they have some clear air now and a new attacking gameplan. Not sure how many more games they can win, but it should make for some good plays for ‘over’ punters.
Joel: Over 4.5 Wins
Have talent coming out of their ears but with their defence going through an overhaul and a tough first eight weeks, expect a painful start. The back half of the year will be much better once the draw opens up and they’ll get over the low line.
Port Adelaide
Tim: Over 13.5 Wins
After their diabolical start to the season Port were one of the best sides late in 2023. They have talent all over the field and have recruited to address their major failings (the key defensive positions). Need to prove they can win finals, but will be a force to be reckoned with in the home and away season.
Joel: Under 13.5 Wins
Just have a nasty habit of falling away after good seasons and after a meek end to 2023, where they went 3-6 with three 40 point losses, it could be on the cards again. Not sure Zerk-Thatcher and Ratugolea as the answer down back. Just outside the eight.
Richmond
Tim: Under 10.5 Wins
With a number of key retirements it genuinely feels like it’s the dawn of a new era at Punt Road. Adem Yze has the right background to be a successful coach, but the Tigers will get worse before they get better.
Joel: Under 10.5 Wins
The end of an era slide appears to be on. There’s still plenty of stars on this list, but the key position stocks are dire and there’s a lack of young talent to bridge the gap. Need Yze to be the second coming of Matthews, Sheedy and McHale combined to improve.
St Kilda
Tim: Over 11.5 Wins
It was a remarkable coaching job by Ross Lyon to get what looked a fairly limited side in terms of talent into the finals last year. Still feel they’re a couple of players away from being genuine contenders, but they should win more games than they lose.
Joel: Over 11.5 Wins
Love the turnaround from Ross and the hard-running Saints who should be playing finals again. Liam Henry could be the recruit of the season and will get plenty of improvement from Owens, Wanganeen-Milera, Windhager and Philippou. Top four chance if King explodes.
Sydney
Tim: Under 12.5 Wins
Missed the finals last year after being smashed in the 2022 Grand Final. Errol Gulden has emerged as a genuine superstar in the middle but he needs some support, while finding a long term answer to replace Buddy Franklin is a key priority. Need to do better than 5-5-1 at the SCG this season.
Joel: Over 12.5 Wins
Building magnificently and enter 2024 with a substantially bolstered midfield with the recruitment of Grundy, Adams and Jordan. Will need improvement from the talls at either end but otherwise look a top four team.
West Coast
Tim: Under 4.5 Wins
Adam Simpson only kept his job because it was impossible financially to fire him. They have been historically bad the last two years and the worst team in the league will remain so in 2024, even with the addition of Harley Reid.
Joel: Under 4.5 Wins
Real definition of insanity stuff with the Eagles, who enter this season with essentially the same tired list, save for #1 pick Harley Reid who looks a slow burn. The same injury-prone veterans have had injury-interrupted pre-seasons. Last again and by some distance.
Western Bulldogs
Tim: Over 11.5 Wins
With the talent at Luke Beveridge’s disposal it is a disgrace that this side missed the finals last year. A repeat would have to see the 2016 winning premiership coach under pressure to keep his job, but they could easily be a top side once again.
Joel: Over 11.5 Wins
Wouldn’t be shocked to see them fourth or fourteenth but going positive on the Dogs. Love the tall forward combo with Ugle-Hagan ready to explode and Sanders a ready made midfield star. Don’t have a lot of faith in Bevo but trusting an off-field shake-up will help.
