Americans go to the polls next Tuesday for the midterm elections that will have a major bearing on the ability of the Trump Administration to continue its non-traditional approach to governing.
Balance Of Power
The midterms are set to be a defining moment in American politics and they historically go against the party of the President. No party of the President has made a gain in the House since George W Bush and the Republican Party picked up eight seats to maintain the GOP’s slim majority in 2002. Since Presidential term limits were introduced after World War II, only two Presidents have helped their party gain seats in the House while nine have lost 26 or more seats. Seven lost control of the House. Trump and the GOP lost 41 seats the last time he faced a midterm. The House is almost certain to go while the Senate (see below) looks most likely to switch as well.
Senate Winner
While the Democrats have been burned plenty in elections over the past decade, they should be incredibly confident this mid-terms, particularly in the Senate. There are 35 Senate seats up for grabs this election with 34 Democrat seats not up for grabs while 31 Republican seats are not up for re-election. That puts the magic number at 17 for the Democrats. There is no betting on nine races where the Democrats are expected to hold – along with 12 that Republicans will hold onto – taking the Democrats and GOP both to 43 apiece. It is the final 14 that will determine if the Democrats can win the Senate back for the first time since holding it from 2007 to 2015 with an outright majority from 2009. None of the remaining four Democrat seats are expected to go red with Jon Osoff $1.02 in Georgia, open holds in Minnesota and New Hampshire both priced at under $1.10 and Michigan at $1.28. North Carolina looks certain to switch at $1.01. That means the Democrats would need to just three of Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, Texas or South Carolina – the Democrats are $1.35 in Alaska, $1.40 in Texas, $1.42 in Ohio and $1.50 in Maine while they are under $2.00 in three more. The price on the Senate going blue is short but incredibly generous.
House Seats – Democrats
This play is a bit of a dart but polling and betting suggests the Democrats are set to sweep the house but factoring in how bad it went for the GOP in Trump’s first term and the limited nature of gains the Democrats have managed without the presidency suggests somewhere between 235 and 244 is the most likely outcome. The Democrats have not held more than 235 House seats since 2009-11 while they have not won more than that without the presidency since 1991-93. Trump dropped 41 House seats in his last midterm though and polling this time is notably worse. Picking up around 25 seats seems the most likely scenario for the Democrats.
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End US Midterm Elections - House Seats - 2026 US Election Betting
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