Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is seeking to become the first PM since John Howard to lead his party into government and be re-elected. Can he hold off Peter Dutton and the Coalition?
Federal Election Outright Tip
The current polls are looking tough for Labor but one term governments are nearly unheard of in Australia at the federal level, with no single term incumbent having been defeated since 1931. Election campaigns typically favour the government, and with interest rates coming down they finally have a positive economic message to sell. The arithmetic of a hung parliament also favours Labor. The Greens, Andrew Wilkie and the Teals are effectively locks, and they may only need to convince one or two others to join and keep Peter Dutton out of the lodge.
Type of Parliament
Even if you are bullish on the Coaliton’s chances, getting to 76 is a tough road for Peter Dutton and company. They only hold 57 seats at present, and while there are some obvious pick ups available like Aston, getting 20 would require a uniform 6% swing, and that’s before factoring in any potential losses. Big ask.
Best Seat Bet
Inner eastern Melbourne has been subject to a redistribution and it is much to the disadvantage of incumbent independent Monique Ryan, with a large chunk of Kooyong replaced by some of the strongest Liberal voting areas within what was formerly Higgins. With no Scott Morrison to run against and only holding the seat by a 2.2% margin, Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer looks well placed to win back the seat.
