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Injuries have hit both teams this series, but off the back of a big Game 4 victory can the Celtics be the first team this series to string consecutive wins together?
Tune in from 10:30am for Miami v Boston on Kayo.
Best Bet
Since the induction of the 7-Game Playoff series, 82.2% of teams that win Game 5 go on to win the series, and with Boston the better team of the two I’m backing them in to win on the road on track to closing the series in 6 back at home.
The Heat won Game 1 off the back of a big third quarter but the Celtics were without both Al Horford and Marcus Smart. In Miami’s Game 3 it was a similar situation – the story of one strong quarter where they jumped a gobsmacked Boston leading 39-18 at the first break, with the Celtics pegging them back across the game but falling short.
Both Boston wins have been emphatic this series. A 25-point victory in Game 2 to go with a 20-point victory in Game 4 despite Marcus Smart missing. With question marks surrounding Jimmy Butler’s knee injury plus Tyler Herro once again unlikely for Game 5, this has dire consequences for the Heat who only managed 82 points in Game 4.
Expect the Celtics to get the road win, looking to close the series when they return home in Game 6.
Value Bet
The 35-year-old has turned back the clock this entire post-season, and is vital to this Boston outfit at both ends of the floor.
Al Horford averages 2.7 blocks from three games this series, which includes 4 blocks in Game 4. Across the entire post-season Horford averages 1.6 blocks per game and has posted 2+ blocks in six of the last 12 games, but this presence has been amplified against the Heat recording 3+ blocks in the last two games.
With Bam and Butler the high usage guys from Miami, expect a lot of the Heat’s shots to be around the key where Horford will be there protecting the rim.
Same Game Multi
Jaylen Brown 6+ Rebounds / Robert Williams Over 7.5 Points / Kyle Lowry Under 10.5 Points = $4.50
Foul trouble didn’t slow down Jaylen Brown’s rebounding this series, recording 7 in Game 4 and now averaging 8.5 rebounds per game this series.
With Marcus Smart doubtful for Game 5, the Celtics will likely have to go a bit big with Robert Williams playing alongside Horford. The big man has scored 10+ points in four of his last five games, averaging 10 points per game across the regular season.
Kyle Lowry doesn’t look 100% as he tries to play through a hamstring injury. The veteran guard has only scored over 10.5 points once from seven games the entire post-season, where he scored 11 points in Game 3 – his hand was forced with the injury to Jimmy Butler. Don’t expect huge minutes from Lowry, and certainly don’t expect too many points.
