St Kilda’s finals hopes are all but gone as they head to the MCG on Saturday afternoon to face a Richmond side farewelling Dion Prestia and Nathan Broad, with Tom Lynch bringing up his 250th game.
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Best Bet
The Saints lose Nas, but this line still looks far too small.
Prior to their more positive fortnight, the Tigers had lost 16 of 18 games by more than 25 points. That includes a 36 point loss to St Kilda earlier in the year.
The Tigers on the surface have had a better fortnight, but West Coast were horribly inaccurate and should have easily won that game and the Crows didn’t fire a shot last week in a really flat performance.
The Saints have been pretty savage against bad teams this year, covering the line in six of their seven against bottom six sides. The average margin across those games was 37 points.
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera is one of five changes to the St Kilda line up, but the rest are not significant. Angus Hastie, Dan Butler, Jack Macrae, Tobie Travaglia and Alix Tauru all come in, with Mason Wood out injured, Hunter Clark and Liam Ryan managed, and Anthony Caminiti omitted.
Expect normal service to resume for Richmond.
Same Game Multi
Expect Darcy Wilson to be the big beneficiary from the Wanganeen-Milera absence. He has had 25 or more in three of his last four.
Brad Hill should continue running wild. He has had 25 or more in six of his last seven, and 23 in the other game.
The Saints are a good match up for half backs. Jayden Short had 25 against them earlier in the year and 20 or more in four of his last five against them.
Value Bet
Short’s disposals have dried up recently, but this is a great match up for him. The Saints have conceded 25 or more disposals to a half back 23 times this year, more than any other team. Good bet.
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