AFL Tips - Adelaide v Port Adelaide

The first Showdown of 2026 hits Adelaide on Friday night with Port Adelaide arriving with genuine momentum.

Best Bet

Port Adelaide +11.5

Line

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$1.90

Port are a great bet as two-goal outsiders and the market looks to have underestimated them.

Josh Carr’s side have quietly snuck up on the competition after a slow start, knocking off Geelong by five goals last week and running red-hot Hawthorn to three points the week prior. Their defence has been a genuine strength, ranked sixth for points against and third for scores from turnover differential. This is a team playing with structure and belief.

Adelaide are battling all over the park. They sit in the bottom half of the competition for both clearance and scores from turnover differential, and their forward line, particularly Thilthorpe, has not been firing anywhere near last year’s level. The Crows could regain Soligo, Neal-Bullen and Curtin for the first time this season while Todd Marshall returns for Port, adding further steel to their defensive end.

With the added spice of a Showdown, back Port to keep this more than close.

Same Game Multi

Port Adelaide +11.5, J.Horne-Francis 2+ Goals, C.Durdin Anytime Goal, W.Milera 20+ Disposals

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$4.20

Jason Horne-Francis is in ominous form, kicking two or more goals in three of his last four games and recording 1.2, 2.0 and 2.1 in his last three Showdowns.

Adelaide have been struggling against small forwards recently so Corey Durdin should cash in.

Wayne Milera is averaging 25 disposals per game this season and should accumulate freely.

Value Bet

C.Durdin 3+ Goals

Player Goals

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$4.00

Adelaide have conceded four goals to Charlie Cameron and Jack Higgins in their last two games, continuing a worrying trend against small forwards. Durdin is no superstar but has kicked two goals in two of his last three games against the Crows and walks into a match-up that suits him.

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Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.