North Melbourne head to Canberra on Sunday afternoon with genuine confidence of causing an upset against a GWS side with an awful record at the venue.
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Best Bet
The line has moved six points toward North this week, a clear signal the market expects a tight contest.
GWS have a shocking record in Canberra, going 5-10 at Manuka with just four covers since 2021. They get some big reinforcements here with Hogan, Daniels, Cadman and Coniglio all back. North also get important ins with Tristan Xerri and Finn O’Sullivan returning, which should lead to dominance around the ball.
The Giants rank dead last for clearance differential this season, while the Roos are third and that comes with Xerri having played just three of six games this season. Dominance around the ball should be enough for this game to remain tight.
Aside from a Round 1 upset over Hawthorn, the Giants only have a win over Richmond to show for their last five games. Even with their inclusions, they don’t look capable of winning this by a big margin.
Same Game Multi
GWS continue to struggle against key forwards without Sam Taylor and Cooper Trembath has kicked two or more goals in four straight games.
Phoenix Gothard has had an excellent start to 2026, kicking six goals in his last four games and earning a Rising Star nomination last week.
Finn O’Sullivan should slot straight back into the midfield off his jaw injury and had 21 and 24 touches in his last two games.
Value Bet
This is a great test for this North Melbourne side. They have capitalised on a kind draw to start the year and look a much better defensive team in 2026, improving from 17th last year to fourth for points conceded. If they can maintain their clearance advantage they should be confident of leaving Canberra with the four points, and at $3.40 the upset is well worth taking.
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