A gross betting game to start Sunday footy, but there is one clear angle worth taking against a St Kilda side that cannot put bad teams away.
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Best Bet
St Kilda are one of the hardest teams in the competition to bet on. Three covers of the line, three games over, three under. There is no clear pattern to work with.
What is clear is that the Saints have not put a bad team away for a very long time. Their last six wins have come by margins of 14, 4, 2, 4, 9 and 6 points, including games against poor teams Richmond, Essendon, Port Adelaide and North Melbourne (last year). They have also failed to cover in four straight games as a favourite of three goals or more.
West Coast have had a tough three weeks, facing Fremantle, Geelong and Sydney, all top-six sides. Against teams in their weight class they have been competitive, beating Port Adelaide by two points and North Melbourne by 17.
The Saints are yet to prove they can smash a bad team. Take the Eagles to remain competitive.
Same Game Multi
Mitch Owens has kicked two or more goals in five of his six games this season.
Half-backs are always a strong play against St Kilda and Tom McCarthy has had 28 disposals in each of his last two games.
Harley Reid has had 20 or more in five of his six games this year.
Value Bet
St Kilda concede the second most disposals to half-backs in the competition and McCarthy has had 28 touches in each of his last two games. He has only played 16 games but has gone 28 or more on five occasions. This is a great match-up for him.
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