NFL Tips – Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens – AFC Championship

Lamar Jackson - NFL Tips

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The top two seeds square off in the AFC Championship Game and while Patrick Mahomes has the better history it is hard to go past Baltimore as being the best team in the conference.

Best Bet

Baltimore -4

This is the game everyone wanted to see in the AFC Championship Game.

Baltimore have been the standout team this season. Kansas City are the defending Super Bowl champions. Lamar Jackson is the presumptive MVP. Patrick Mahomes is widely regarded as the best player in the league. The Ravens rank 2nd in points per game and 4th in yards per play while the Chiefs rank Top 4 in defensive points per game conceded and yards per play.

Unfortunately for the Chiefs, the Ravens top them in both of those defensive categories but the Kansas City offense is nowhere near the Ravens in that matchup. And it is the unreliable Chiefs offense that will likely cost Kansas City.

This is a magnificent spot for the Ravens.

Much is being spoken about Mahomes’ record as an underdog and it is highly impressive – 8-3 against the number – but there are too many angles pushing the Ravens here.

Hosts are 13-7 against the spread in the last 20 Conference Championship games. Those favoured by less than seven are 15-7 ATS.

We want to be well against the Chiefs too. Teams off wins of seven of less in the Divisional round are 8-12 ATS. Road teams that won 12 or more games during the regular season are 6-11 ATS. And teams off facing Buffalo are 3-14 ATS.

Baltimore are an elite bet.

Same Game Multi

Gus Edwards TD/Lamar Jackson TD

Gus Edwards has 12 touchdowns in his last 12 games and has 17 redzone touches in his last four games.

Lamar Jackson had only five rushing touchdowns during the regular season but had 11 carries and scored twice last week.

Value Bet

Nelson Agholor
Anytime TD

This is an utterly ridiculous price for the Ravens wideout to score. Agholor has four or more targets in three of his last four appearances with touchdowns in two of those. He has played the third most snaps in each of his last four games. He has big play potential. Huge overs.

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Nick has spent more than 15 years working in wagering around the world and is a regular NRL columnist for The Guardian.