The first of two enormous Preliminary Finals at the MCG this weekend sees two great rivals in Geelong and Hawthorn square off for a spot in the 2025 Grand Final.
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Best Bet
Geelong look the clear play here.
The Cats have had Hawthorn’s measure, winning six of the last seven and covering in the last four. Their only clash this season came on Easter Monday, with Geelong edging a seven-point win.
The Hawks have struggled against quality opposition all year, finishing 3-7 against top-eight teams in the home-and-away season, the worst mark of any finalist. Last week’s win over Adelaide was strong on paper, but it is hard to trust the form given the Crows were exposed as pretenders in back-to-back finals.
Geelong’s defensive system is on another level compared to Adelaide and GWS. Hawthorn’s midfield depth is also a concern without Will Day. Jai Newcombe has been outstanding through September, but Chris Scott is certain to put work into him through Mark O’Connor or Oisin Mullin. That leaves the middling group of Worpel, Ward and Nash battling with Smith, Holmes and Miers, a contest that should tilt the Cats’ way.
For Hawthorn to win, they must hold up defensively and cut through Geelong’s press with speed. Brisbane tried the same blueprint in the qualifying final, however, and were soundly beaten.
The Cats arrive as September specialists. This is their 15th preliminary final since 2000, and they have covered in four of their last five finals, four of their last five off a 10+ day break, and four of their last five night games at the MCG.
Back Geelong to march on to yet another Grand Final.
Same Game Multi
Ollie Dempsey has kicked a goal in 11 straight at the MCG, including three in the qualifying final.
With Newcombe’s impact likely to be curtailed, Josh Ward should enjoy some more freedom after his 31-touch effort last week. He’s had 20+ in six straight at the MCG.
Patrick Dangerfield’s centre bounce attendances spiked last week, attending 47%. He had 19 touches.
Value Bet
The MCG always suits hard running wingmen and Ollie Dempsey has shown that he enjoys playing at the home of footy, kicking 2+ goals in five of his last six games at the venue.
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