Brisbane head to Marvel Stadium on Saturday as enormous favourites but their record against bottom-six teams makes this a tricky game to call.
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Best Bet
No team cashes in less on bad teams than Brisbane.
From their last ten games against bottom-six sides, the Lions have covered in just two, with an average winning margin of 25 points. Although they looked scary against Adelaide last week, they have been prone to down games throughout 2026 and this line asks a lot of a team with that kind of record against inferior opposition.
Essendon have a solid record against top-six teams at Marvel, covering in 13 of 20. Putting aside last week’s performance against Collingwood, they have been much more competitive over the past month.
Brisbane have won their last three against the Bombers but the largest margin was just 42 points, and with Oscar Allen joining an already long Lions injury list, the Bombers’ struggling key defenders get some welcome relief.
It won’t be an easy watch but back Essendon to remain within this huge line.
Same Game Multi
Charlie Cameron is back to his best, kicking seven goals in his last two games.
Lachie Neale is averaging 32 touches from his last five against Essendon and is coming off 42 against Adelaide last week.
Archie Roberts continues to fill up in defence, recording 33 or more touches in four straight games.
Value Bet
McCluggage has spent less than 60 per cent of his time at centre bounces since returning from injury, increasingly pushing onto the wing and forward with Zac Bailey getting more midfield time.
He kicked two last week and with McGrath playing through the midfield for Essendon, could find himself in a very favourable match-up.
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