NRL Tips – Panthers v Roosters – Qualifying Final 2026

Finals Week 1 wraps up with title favourites Penrith hosting the Sydney Roosters at CommBank as the shortest-priced elect of the weekend.

Best Bet

Panthers -9.5

Line

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$1.82

Much has been made of the Sam Walker injury but the Roosters really will not take a huge hit with Daly Cherry-Evans given the chance to take the reins again, Hugo Savala moving to his favoured position in the halves and Billy Smith back to the centres.

The issue for the Roosters is not the Walker injury. It is their inability to step up in big matches and the quality of the opposition they face.

The Roosters are a poor 9-19 against the spread against Top 4 teams while they cover at just 42% against Top 8 sides. It is also notable that underdogs of six or more are 3-11 against the spread across the last three finals series.

This is Penrith and this is finals Penrith and they are near impossible to stop. The Panthers have covered 11 of 13 finals since 2022. They are 20-11ATS against Top 4 teams. They have dominated the Roosters with nine covers in the last 12 meetings.

The Panthers have also covered six of eight day games and their attack is freed in the afternoon.

Expect Penrith to win and win big.

Same Game Multi

Tom Jenkins Try/Brian To'o Try/Casey McLean Try

Same Game Multi

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$6.50

Tom Jenkins finished the season tied for premiership top tryscorer with an incredible 30 this year.

Brian To’o has scored in six of his last eight games against the Roosters.

Casey McLean has been in sublime form since returning from injury with four tries across the last two weeks.

Value Bet

Liam Henry

To Score A Try

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$6.50

Liam Henry is such a highly underrated player who continually delivers Penrith results and will be a star for Perth next season where he will push for Origin selection. One aspect of his game that really has improved is his ability to get over the line. He has scored four tries in his last nine games and was desperately unlucky not to get over last week when centimeters short. He is huge odds.

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Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.