NFL Tips - Colts @ Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes is back and Kenneth Walker III ran for 173 yards on debut, while Indianapolis conceded 41 points and held the ball for 24 minutes at home.

Best Bet

Chiefs -5.5

Line

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$1.90

Kansas City beat Denver 31-10 and could not have been more impressive. They ran for 220 yards, finished with 392 and held the ball for 33 minutes 42 against the side that led the NFL in defensive success rate last season.

Kenneth Walker III had 173 rushing yards and two scores on debut, which let Mahomes pick his moments rather than carry it. He went 15 of 27 for 184 with two passing touchdowns and one on the ground, getting rid of it quicker than any quarterback in the league at 2.13 seconds. Clearly Andy Reid is looking to take pressure off his quarterback – and it worked brilliantly.

Indianapolis were taken apart. They gave up 41 to Baltimore, ranked 29th for EPA per play, let Lamar Jackson go 17 of 25 for 324 and watched Derrick Henry run for 144 and three scores. They turned it over twice and had the ball for 24 minutes 40.

Daniel Jones is a week further from the torn Achilles but managed 166 yards at 5.4 an attempt while taking seven hits.

Expect the Chiefs to handle this comfortably at home.

Same Game Multi

Chiefs -5.5/Under 47.5/Kenneth Walker 80+ Rushing Yards

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$4.50

Kansas City should be far too strong at home.

The Chiefs have gone under in 68% of games when laying six or more at Arrowhead since 2018, and they just won 31-10 by running the clock down.

Walker ran for 173 and two touchdowns on debut against the best defence in football by success rate last season. Indianapolis just had Derrick Henry carry 24 times for 144 yards and three scores, so the Chiefs will hand it to Walker early and often.

Value Bet

Kenneth Walker III

First Touchdown Scorer

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$4.50

The Super Bowl MVP looked incredible in his first game for the Chiefs and can keep it going here against a porous run defence.

Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.