Jacksonville won their final eight games to take the AFC South in Liam Coen’s first year. Can they go back to back in 2026?
Division Winner
Jacksonville are being asked to prove last season was not a fluke, and the numbers say it was not.
The Jaguars outscored their opponents by 138 points, the best mark in the conference, and their thirteen wins were only a shade ahead of what that deserved. Trevor Lawrence played the best football of his career over the back half of the year and if that is who he is now, Jacksonville have the best quarterback in this division. They have lost Travis Etienne Jr and Devin Lloyd – but both play positions where talent is relatively easy to find.
Houston are favoured at $2.25 but the problem is quarterback CJ Stroud, who has not been close to his rookie form in two seasons and now enters year four.
Indianapolis are the danger at $4.70. They finished 8-9 but were worth closer to ten wins, easily the biggest shortfall in the division, and the collapse from 7-1 ran alongside Daniel Jones going down injured. Jones is back on a new deal.
Tennessee will improve under Robert Saleh with Brian Daboll running the offence, but three wins against the hardest schedule in the conference is a long way from contention.
The Jags are the value to run it back.
Season Wins Over/Under
The Colts have the personnel for a lot more than seven wins. Quenton Nelson, Bernhard Raimann on a $100 million deal and Tanor Bortolini, who graded third among centres last year, front a line that could be the best in the AFC, and Tyler Warren is a genuine weapon at tight end. Alec Pierce has led the league in yards per catch two years running.
They were 7-1 before Daniel Jones went down and finished 8-9 while outscoring opponents by 54 points. Admittedly the linebacker room lost Zaire Franklin and is leaning on a rookie, and Pierce is not yet fit. But 7.5 looks a very achievable number.
Player Prop
Taylor is the market favourite and given the line he has blocking for him, it isn’t hard to see why. The offence will run through him yet again.
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