Pittsburgh won the AFC North with Aaron Rodgers and a 10-7 record, but Mike Tomlin has walked away and the two teams with the best quarterbacks should fight this out.
Division Winner
Cincinnati are the value in a division that has just lost both of its long-serving head coaches.
The Bengals finished 6-11 and health was most of the story, with Joe Burrow playing only eight games.
They were still outscored by 78 points across the season though, so this was not simply bad luck. The offence held up reasonably well even with Burrow missing half the year, but the defence was among the worst in the league and that is where the season went. Cincinnati have gone after it in the off-season, adding Dexter Lawrence 0and Boye Mafe, and they also get the third-easiest schedule in football.
Baltimore are favourites at $1.80 which is understandable, but John Harbaugh has gone after eighteen seasons and Jesse Minter is a first-time head coach who was running the Chargers defence last season.
The Steelers replace Tomlin with another experienced coach in Mike McCarthy, though Tomlin never posted a losing season in twenty years so there is a lot for him to live up to. Aaron Rodgers is 43 and is far from the only past his prime player on the roster.
Cleveland is starting Deshaun Watson, which says it all.
Take the Bengals at the odds
Season Wins Over/Under
Pittsburgh have not won fewer than nine games since 2019 and that run is under serious threat this year. Aaron Rodgers turns 43 during the season, Mike McCarthy is installing a new programme, and both teams above them get their franchise quarterbacks back. The oldest roster in football could fall apart quickly if injuries hit.
Player Prop
Burrow is the market favourite and deserves to be, having led the league in this category in 2024 and only missing last season because he played eight games. The third-easiest schedule helps, and a defence that leaks as badly as Cincinnati’s should means plenty of games where they need to air it out.
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