AFL Tips – Sydney v Geelong – Round 23 2025

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Best Bet

Geelong -18.5

Line

$1.90

The Cats are arguably the form team of the competition and should comfortably account for the Swans.

They’ve covered the line in eight of their last 12 matches, winning by an average of 59 points in that stretch. They’ve also covered in six of eight interstate games, six of eight against bottom-nine teams and five of seven day games.

Sydney have probably been the ‘best of the rest’ outside the top-nine contenders, especially in the back half of the year, but the gap in these teams in the turnover game is huge. Despite winning seven of their last ten, the Swans only rank 13th for scores from turnover differential through that period, while Geelong are clearly first.

Brodie Grundy, ranked sixth in player ratings over that period, has been a big driver of Sydney’s lift. His absence through concussion is massive, as he ranks top three for both clearances and contested possessions in that span.

Sydney’s stars have also struggled in this match-up. Isaac Heeney has kicked four goals in his last four games against the Cats and had 15 or fewer disposals in three of them. Errol Gulden also averages below his usual disposal output against Geelong.

The Swans have failed to cover in four of their last five matches and will struggle to get close to the Cats.

Same Game Multi

Geelong -18.5, S.Neale 2+ Goals, T.Papley Anytime Goal, G.Miers 20+ Disposals

$4.33

Tom McCartin has a pretty good record against Jeremy Cameron so we’ll leave him out. However, the second key defender post remains a struggle for the Swans, and Shannon neale has kicked 3+ in four of his last five.

Gryan Miers continues to play well in the guts and he’s had 20+ in nine of ten, while Tom Papley kicked four in his last game against the Cats.

Value Bet

Geelong 73+

Margin

$11.00

The Swans have been hammered by a couple of good teams this season, losing to the Giants by 33 and the Crows by 90. If Grundy’s absence leaves Sydney impotent in the midfield, this could get very ugly.

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