AFL Tips – Hawthorn v Melbourne – Round 23 2025

Hawthorn Hawks vs Melbourne Demons - AFL Tips

The Dees will be hoping to dent Hawthorn’s finals hopes when they meet at the MCG on Saturday.

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Best Bet

Hawthorn -22.5
Line

The Hawks continue to get the job done against bottom-nine teams and have to be the bet here.

Sam Mitchell’s side have won 17 and covered the line in 15 of their last 21 games against the bottom nine, winning by an average of 32 points. They’ll enter this clash full of confidence after last week’s 64-point demolition of the Magpies.

The Dees showed they will be more attacking under interim coach Troy Chaplin, putting up 99 points against the Bulldogs in his first game in charge, but the Hawks are a far tougher defensive proposition.

Hawthorn have the competition’s second-best defence over the last ten games, conceding just 63 points per game (the Bulldogs rank 10th over that stretch).

The six-day break will not help Melbourne, as they have failed to cover in seven of their last eight off a short turnaround, while the Hawks have covered in 22 of 31 following a win.

Take the Hawks to shore up their September position with a comfortable victory.


Same Game Multi

Hawthorn -22.5, J.Gunston & N.Watson 2+ Goals, M.D'Ambrosio 20+ Disposals

Jack Gunston has kicked 14 goals in his last four games, while Nick Watson has kicked 2+ in 9 of 11 at the MCG.

Massimo D’Ambrosio has had 20+ disposals in five of his last six matches.


Value Bet

J.Gunston
4+ Goals

Can Jack make it a hat-trick of four-goal games? The veteran has kicked four in each of his last two and three in the two games prior to that. He also kicked 3.4 in his last game against the Dees.

Betseeker’s expert tipsters have you covered for the best AFL tips, predictions, same-game multis, and more, for each game of the 2025 AFL season.

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Frankie has spent more than a decade working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.