NFL Tips - Chiefs @ Dolphins

There is going to be nothing enjoyable about this one but it is impossible to pass up the big number being given to the Dolphins at home when they host the unbeaten Chiefs.

Best Bet

Dolphins +11.5

Line

Bet Now

$1.92

This is a hold your nose and pray game but the Dolphins have to be the bet getting 11.5 points at home with home underdogs of seven or more 13-1 against the spread in the first four weeks dating back to 2018.

The Dolphins may well be the worst team in football but the numbers are just too enticing to pass on.

Teams that are 0-2 without a cover are 30-12 ATS in Week 3. Home underdogs against unbeaten teams cover at 60%. Home underdogs of 7 or more Weeks 1-9 are 23-4-2 ATS since 2022.

The numbers are just as dire for the Chiefs. In the Super Bowl era five teams have scored 30-plus in their first two games and won and then came out as a double digit road favourite. None of the five have covered.

Back Miami and try to avoid sweating it.

Same Game Multi

De'von Achane Over 24.5 Receiving Yards/Patrick Mahomes Over 15.5 Rush Yards/Kenneth Walker Over 85.5 Rush Yards

Bet Now

$6.15

De’von Achane is the most dangerous weapon the Dolphins have and he is effective in the passing game, being targeted 11 times this season, catching seven for 49 yards.

Patrick Mahomes has rushed for at least 15 yards in six straight games.

Kenneth Walker has been the centrepiece of the Chiefs attack, rushing for 173 and 117 yards in his two showings.

Value Bet

Caleb Douglas

To Score A Touchdown

Bet Now

$4.00

Let’s be clear: there is not much happening with the Miami offense and that is unlikely to change to any great degree against the unbeaten Chiefs. To make the nut the hope is that the Dolphins can find a touchdown or two and make some field goals while defending stoutly enough not to let the Chefs get to 30. The one player that does look value to score is Caleb Douglas. The rookie out of Texas Tech already has 10 targets to his name, pulling in seven of them. He is a fulltime player with 91% and 86% snap rates. He has a bright future and is worth a bet in this one.

Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.