NRL Tips - QLD v NSW - Game 3 - State of Origin 2026

We have a decider once again with Suncorp Stadium hosting its ninth series-deciding win of the last two decades and given the changes for NSW, the Maroons should be lifting the trophy on home soil.

Best Bet

Queensland -5.5

Line

Bet Now

$1.90

We head to Suncorp for a decider and every indicator points to a comfortable Queensland win, heaping further embarrassment on the NSWRL for going back to the well with Laurie Daley.

We have talked about Daley all series but that is because he has been completely central to this mess of a campaign. His selection decisions for game three are so nonsensical that one wonders whether he actually understands the strategy he has copied and implemented. Daley seems insistent on playing within a Penrith structure yet once again ignored Dylan Edwards and Api Koroisau and even dropped Brian To’o. To call it madness would be an insult to the term. It is downright lunacy. Dropping To’o for Bostock, dumping Tolutau Koula for Bradman Best, not starting Haumole Olakau’atu, sticking with Mitch Moses and Mark Nawaqanitawase, leaving Cam Murray on the bench … there has never been a more confused team selected.

Daley and the Blues are incredibly lucky that they get the opportunity to play in a decider. They only won the opener on the back of a controversial send off. Queensland are ahead 64-28 this series when they have 13 players on the field.

We are over four decades into State of Origin and once again the bookmakers have it wrong and even with Queensland in a rare spot as a notable favourite they are value. Having a huge coaching advantage – perhaps the biggest in Origin history – and an undeniable record of being able to win with less talent are immense advantages.

Daley’s history at Origin level is embarrassing, making it an absolute shock that he is back in the job. He has lost five of six series. The Blues average 14.3 points per game on his watch, topping 18 in just five of 20 games. This is Nathan Cleary’s fifth decider – he has lost the previous four and has now lost the second most Origin games of any NSW halfback.

Billy Slater has had four series at the helm – with a talent deficit in each – but has won three primarily through astute selections and hard work. He is on the verge of four.

Eight deciders have been played at Suncorp over the last two decades and Queensland have won seven. The Maroons have won nine of the last 14 at Suncorp. The last three deciders have all been decided by at least 10 points.

Queensland will win this and win big.

Same Game Multi

Under 46.5/Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Try/Selwyn Cobbo Try

Same Game Multi

Bet Now

$6.50

Nine of the last 10 Game 3s have finished on 38 or fewer points while the last 10 at Suncorp have finished on 38 or fewer.

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has feasted at Origin level with 13 tries in 12 games in the Maroon jersey.

Selwyn Cobbo scored a hat-trick when matched up with defensive liability Mark Nawaqanitawase in game two.

Value Bet

Jeremiah Nanai

To Score A Try

Bet Now

$4.50

Jeremiah Nanai is a prolific tryscorer with 49 tries in 88 NRL games and his form has been exceptional since returning from a serious injury with three tries in four appearances. He has scored twice at Origin level with one of those coming off the bench. He looks a great value play to score, particularly if this one opens up.

Follow Betseeker for weekly expert NRL tips and predictions for the 2026 NRL season. Check out Betseeker’s best betting sites and new betting sites to place your NRL bets!

Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.