AFL Tips - Adelaide v Melbourne

Melbourne head to Adelaide Oval on Saturday as underdogs but with plenty of reason for confidence against a Crows side that has been a shocking betting proposition as favourites.

Best Bet

Melbourne +20.5

Line

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$1.90

There is a lot to like about what Adelaide are doing lately but the numbers suggest Melbourne can remain competitive here.

The Crows have been a shocking bet as favourites, failing to cover the line in nine of their last ten as favourites. Melbourne have a good record in this match-up, winning four of five and covering in seven of their last ten. The Dees have also been terrific against top-eight teams this year, winning four of five and covering in all five.

Both teams get important inclusions. The Crows welcome back Izak Rankine, Mark Keane and Taylor Walker but lose Josh Worrell to illness. Melbourne get Caleb Windsor and Tom McDonald back.

The last three games between these teams have been decided by under 15 points. Back the Dees to remain within three goals.

Same Game Multi

Melbourne +20.5, I.Rankine Anytime Goal, B.Keays Anytime Goal, K.Pickett 25+ Disposals

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$6.00

Melbourne have been battling against small forwards all season.

Ben Keays has kicked two or more goals in five straight home games while Rankine, returning from injury, may spend more time forward in his first game back. He has kicked a goal in nine of ten games this year and three behinds in the other.

Kysaiah Pickett has recorded 25 or more disposals in five of his last six away games.

Value Bet

J.Dawson 3+ Goals

Player Goals

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$4.20

Ride the Dawson heater with three goals in each of his last two games. Getting Rankine back adds flexibility to the Crows’ forward structure and may allow the skipper to push forward more regularly.

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Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.