The final field is locked in for the 165th running of the race that stops a nation at Flemington. Best bets and comments for every runner in the Melbourne Cup are below.
Best Bet
I think that the Caulfield Cup is the right form line and I have the French horse Presage Nocturne on top after a perfect trial in that race. Ticks every possible box.
Next Best
Absurde was most unlucky in the race last year, and he showed with a very good Caulfield Cup trial that he is peaking at the right time.
Best Roughie
She doesn’t want it too wet, but River of Stars put the writing on the wall with a superb Caulfield Cup second placing, and she will eat up the two miles.
Melbourne Cup Tips for Trifecta
1st: 6, 9, 14, 21
2nd: 1, 6, 9, 10, 14, 21, 24
3rd: 1, 6, 7, 9, 10, 14, 21, 22, 24
Melbourne Cup Tips for First Four
1st: 6, 9, 14, 21
2nd: 1, 6, 9, 10, 14, 21, 24
3rd: 1, 6, 7, 9, 10, 14, 21, 22, 24
4th: 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 9, 10, 14, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24
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Melbourne Cup Runner-By-Runner Preview
Clearly the class runner in the field but he has to overcome the 59Kg which no horse has carried in several decades. While he has never seen a wet track, that shouldn’t bother him, but with so much weight he will need to be at the absolute top of his game. Under the odds.
Ran in this race last year, and while Joao Moreira didn’t give him a good ride, he wasn’t exactly savaging the line at the end of two miles either. There is a definite query over his will to win given that he has turned it up at two of his last three runs. Hard pass at the price.
At his peak he would be a rough place chance but coming into this race off a last start eighth in the Bendigo Cup suggests he is simply not going well enough.
Started favourite in this race two years ago and went around $8 last year. He finished 14th and 11th. Very unlucky in the Metropolitan but was flat out poor in the Caulfield Cup. Rough place chance.
Best Japanese form is a couple of years ago now and the rain is almost certainly a negative. Pass.
Produce the perfect trial for this race in the Caulfield Cup where he was very strong through the line. The French form has stood up in this race in the recent past, while the rain is big positive for the grey. The one to beat.
Poor run in the Caulfield Cup but backed up the next week in the JRA at Moonee Valley and was very strong through the line over 2040m. Has miles in the legs and bred to run the trip, but the wet track is a query. Far from the worst roughie.
If JMac wasn’t riding this horse it would be double the price. Didn’t fire a shot in the Caulfield Cup and it doesn’t want wet ground at all. Hard pass.
Very unlucky in this race last year when he copped a significant check in the home straight that cost him any winning chance. Should have finished top four at least. Did enough in the Caulfield Cup to suggest he is going at least as well. Rain looks good for him. Perfect draw. Great bet at the odds.
Globe hopping German who comes here off a last start win at Kentucky Downs, but American two mile racing isn’t exactly a powerhouse. Hard to line up the form but he has been well backed since fields came out, so he has to be respected.
Could only manage eighth in this race last year when he came into it in outstanding form. Comes here this year, off back to back last placings. Hard pass.
I don’t think he would run two miles down the side of Mt Elephant, let alone in this class.
Blinkers going on for the first time reeks of desperation and considering his lead up form, they should be desperate.
Given an outstanding ride by Jamie Melham in the Caulfield Cup, and he was probably entitled to win that race by a larger margin given the run he had and the price he started. Nevertheless, if the only knock you can find on a horse is that they ought to have won easier last time out, that bodes well for his chances, even if he seems very short at the price.
Comes in with the Metropolitan/Sydney St Leger form which we have seen time and again, simply does not stand up in the Cup.
Easy to forget he started $7 in this race last year off the back of a dominant Geelong Cup win and finished 12th. It’s hard not to throw him in just off the back of the SP profile but at the same time, the wet is a big question mark against him.
Northern Hemisphere 3YO and that is a formula that saw success with Cross Counter and Rekindling, but he isn’t as well credentialed as those runners and his wet form is problematic.
American runner who comes here off back to back wins at Saratoga, but that form is highly dubious. Pass.
Sydney stayer who lacks the necessary class but can probably battle on to a top ten finish if things go well.
Failed steeplechaser who has won three from five since reverting to the flat. UK form looks second rate and happy to go around her.
Produced an outstanding trial for this in the Caulfield Cup where she sat on the pace off a strong speed and stuck on gamely to finish second. She probably doesn’t want it too wet, but if the track can stay a Soft 7 to Heavy 8, she is a terrific chance with such a light weight.
Continues to improve every start and comes from a jockey/trainer combination that knows about winning a Melbourne Cup. Probably lacks the class required but one of the better roughies in the field.
Still getting over this horse’s defeat in the Warrnambool Cup but despite his good last start win in the Geelong Cup, it is a formline that never holds up in this race.
Fashionable selection for this race off the back of his fast closing fourth in the Caulfield Cup, which was preceded by an impressive Bart Cummings win off a hot tempo prior. He has only won two races over his career, but it’s not hard to see why he is fancied, even if the price looks too short.
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