Luka Doncic is neck-and-neck in the market for MVP with Victor Wembanyama, and you can see why – the Slovenian has dropped 40+ points in six of his last seven games.
Best Bet
New Orleans Pelicans @ Golden State Warriors (2:10pm)
Dejounte Murray missed a few games due to the birth of his child, and Jeremiah Fears took his opportunity with both hands and hasn’t let go.
In Fear’s last six games, he’s averaged 20.3 points and 6.5 assists for a PA of 26.8 – now three of those games were without Dejounte Murray, but the last three he’s played alongside Murray in the starting lineup, Fears has managed:
19 points and 2 assists vs Utah
24 points and 5 assists vs Minnesota
25 points and 5 assists vs LA Clippers
He could cover this PA in points alone against the Warriors.
Next Best
LA Lakers @ Atlanta Hawks (11:10am)
Insanely high line, but Luka Doncic is playing at an insanely high level which dwarfs this points line based on recent form.
Doncic averages a staggering 44.3 points per game from his last seven, hitting 40+ in six of those seven games.
The Hawks are a good defensive outfit – they’ll no doubt rotate Daniels and Dort on to Doncic at different intervals, but we also thought the Trail Blazers could limit Luka’s impact via Camara, and he dropped 53.
Value Bet
Memphis Grizzlies @ Toronto Raptors (11:40am)
He always had strong rebounding instincts, with 8.2 rebounds per 36 minutes last season in his rookie year, but Cedric Coward has elevated that plus some this season.
Coward is averaging 8.8 rebounds per game this season for the Grizzlies in 28.5 minutes per game, and although the Raptors are the best at restricting Small Forwards on the glass this season, I still feel Coward’s line has dropped too far providing us nice value at 8+.
In his eight games this season, Coward has a 100% strike rate at covering the line of 6.5, and has recorded 8+ rebounds in five of those games. Coward has pulled in nine rebounds in each of his last three games, including last start against the Thunder – he played just 23 minutes in a blowout. I don’t see a blowout in this matchup with the Raptors, so we should see him back around 30 minutes in this.
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