With doubts around Sabalenka and Gauff leading into Wimbledon, this is one of the more open women’s draws we’ve seen in a long time.
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Champion
We’ve seen some unusual results the last couple of Wimbledons in the women’s draw. Vondrousova won in 2023 at $81, then Krejcikova at $126 – so don’t be surprised if we see another at odds.
Of all the top players, I’m leaning towards Elina Rybakina. Her record at Wimbledon is very strong at 18-3, winning in 2022 and reaching the Semi Final last year.
The draw isn’t easy in the strongest quarter with Swiatek and Gauff, but she has a great record against Iga and Gauff will need to be the second player in 29 years to win the French / Wimbledon double – during this period only Serena has done it in 2002 and 2015.
Sabalenka has never reached the Final at Wimbledon and is also in a tough quarter with the likes of Vondrousova, Raducanu, Svitolina and Keys, so I think the Kazakh is a bet.
Runner Up
The first and fourth quarters are equally as difficult, which opens up opportunities in quarters 2 and 3 – with Amanda Anisimova featuring in the second quarter.
The American is having a huge year going 25-12 which includes winning in Doha earlier in the year, and reaching the Final of Queen’s in the lead-up with wins over Navarro and Qinwen.
Can quite easily see this quarter fall apart early – Paolini isn’t in great form in the lead-up, while Qinwen has notoriously struggled on grass. Huge opportunity for a breakout run.
Semi Finalists
The veteran Ukrainian has had a huge year so far with a 30-10 record. She made the Quarters at both the Australian Open and Roland Garros, and has played well at Wimbledon in recent times with Semi Final appearances in 2019 and 2023, along with reaching the Quarters last year.
Doesn’t normally do much in lead-up tournaments to Wimbledon so happy to ignore these results, but she’s certainly one of the contenders that can emerge from one of the more open Wimbledon draws we’ve seen in a long time.
Vondrousoca $81, Krejcikova $126 – Xin Yu Wang at $126? The Chinese had a sensational lead-up and is a proven player on grass.
Made the Final at Berlin in the lead-up going down to 2023 Champion Vondrousova in three sets, but taking the scalps of Badosa, Gauff, Kasatkina and Samsonova in the process.
Beat Pegula in the second-round of Wimbledon last year where she would go on to make the Round of 16, and features in the same quarter as the American again. Someone who could make a surprising Semi Final run.
Roughies
The seeds in the third quarter are littered with players that are underdone, not suited to grass, out of form or underperform at majors – so this is the quarter we have to attack with the value, and I’ve gone after 20-year-old Alexandra Eala.
The Filipino broke out at Miami earlier in the year reaching the Semi Final, and enters Wimbledon after reaching the Final at Eastbourne.
Another quarter likely to blow up, where I’ve marked no seeds reaching the Round of 16. Certainly capable when playing at the level she has at Miami and Eastbourne this year.
Proper long-shot but saw enough at the French Open from the young American, where I believe she’ll be better suited to the faster surfaces.
Baptiste lost to Eala at Eastbourne in three sets which isn’t a horrible form-line with the Filipino reaching the Final, and enters Wimbledon off the back of a Round of 16 run at Roland Garros.
Potential to make a surprising run in a very open quarter of the draw.
