Iga Swiatek is looking to be the second woman in 22 years to do the Wimbledon / US Open double – I think an American can spoil the party at her home Grand Slam.
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Champion
Is a winner at Flushing Meadows back in 2023 and has shown enough in the lead-up reaching the Quarters at Cincinnati.
Wimbledon was always going to be an uphill battle after winning the French Open, and I think Gauff is primed for a deep US Open run in somewhat of a friendly draw – she’ll likely meet Osaka in the Round of 16 with either Keys or Noskova in the Quarter Final.
The trends are in Coco’s favour, and the $11 for the tournament is a nice price in a very open field.
Runner Up
Another strong year by the Italian with a 33-14 record despite a poor showing at majors in 2025, but her run to the Final of Cincinnati including a win over Coco suggests she could make a deep run here.
Paolini features in the quarter of hell, which is the very reason I’m avoiding Aryna Sabalenka. Bouzkova and Fernandez have been playing well, then there’s Mertens, Tauson, Rybakina, Raducanu – Kudermetova had a deep run at Cincinnati, Kessler has been solid and of course there’s Vondrousova.
Whoever does emerge might have their issues going all the way to win the Final, but Paolini’s form line and head-to-head record against those in her path is solid.
Semi Finalists
A huge talent in the weakest quarter of the draw. The last Canadian to win Montreal leading into the US Open went on to win at Flushing Meadows – Bianca Andreescu in 2019 who came from a level of obscurity. The 18-year old Victoria Mboko will look to repeat history.
The Canadian features in the same quarter as Andreeva and Pegula, but the Russian suffered an ankle injury a few weeks back so will enter underdone, while Pegula who was a Finalist last year is very much out of form going into Flushing Meadows this year – quite the contrary to 2024.
Huge opportunity for a deep run by the teenager.
No knock on Swiatek whatsoever, but the Wimbledon / US Open double has been done once in the last 22 years and that was prime Serena Williams.
Did win at Flushing Meadows in 2022 but hasn’t been outstanding here outside of that. The Pole does feature in an easier part of the draw which works in her favour, but she will need to defy history to win her second US open title.
Roughies
In good company as one of the players that has beaten both Sabalenka and Swiatek this year. The Dane is extremely dangerous in the first quarter of the draw, and is destined to meet Sabalenka in the Round of 16 – she easily accounted for the world number one in Dubai earlier in the year.
Reached the Round of 16 at Wimbledon, but I think the hard courts are better suited to Tauson’s game. She made a Semi Final run at Montreal in the lead-up, and I think this could be a breakout major for the 22-year-old.
In the weakest quarter of the draw in Quarter 2, Belinda Bencic showed at Wimbledon she’s still got it reaching the Semi Finals, and she’s got a good record at the US Open.
A Semi Finalist here in 2019 plus two more Quarter Final appearances, the Swiss has a strong hard court record in 2025 to go with her deep Wimbledon run and cannot be underestimated.
