Iga Swiatek is no stranger to success on Phillippe-Chatrier and the Polish wunderkind looks every chance of justifying her short quote over the next fortnight in Paris.
Swiatek is currently riding high on an absurd 27-match win streak. Since falling in the second round of Dubai back in February, the 20-year-old has bulldozed her way through five tournaments without loss. We haven’t seen dominance like this on the WTA tour since Serena Williams was playing some of her best tennis in mid-2010s. I lean on combined service and return points won a lot when betting tennis and looking at those numbers on clay in the last 12 months, Swiatek is more than 3 per cent better than the next player in Barbora Krejcikova, who has been out injured since February. The 2020 French Open champion’s draw is relatively kind but a potential fourth-round meeting with Simona Halep is on the cards. Swiatek is a heavy favourite and deservedly so and while she is my top pick, I’ll be looking for value elsewhere too.
There are no better form lines in world tennis right now than those traced directly to Iga Swiatek and Ons Jabeur’s runner-up performance in Rome reads very well as a result. The Tunisian boasts the most wins and final appearances on clay this season and will no doubt be confident heading into Rolland Garros after claiming her first WTA 1000 title in Madrid earlier this month. In terms of combined service and return points won percentage on clay over the past 12 months, Jabeur sits behind only Swiatek and Krejcikova, the 2021 French Open champion. Importantly, the 27-year-old also finds herself on the opposite side of the draw to the World No. 1 and is my favourite to meet Swiatek in the final on June 4.
Belinda Bencic holds the best serve points won percentage on clay of any player on the WTA tour this season and her 9-2 record on the surface is nothing to sneeze at either. The Tokyo gold medallist knocked off Ons Jabeur in the final in Charleston in April for her first title of the year and her performances in Madrid and Rome were both solid. The Swiss’ draw is far from ideal with a potential second round meeting with her doppelganger in Bianca Andreescu. Anisimova, Osaka and Sakkari are also in the same half of the quarter as Bencic, but she wouldn’t have to face one of them until at least the fourth round. The World No. 14 is certainly capable of making a run and I’m happy to invest at the current price.
Jill Teichmann has put together a very solid clay court season to date and looks a great bet at her current price to put together a nice run in Paris. Teichmann ranks 7th on tour for match win percentage on clay this season and is top-20 for both serve and return points percentage won. The World No. 24 is 8-3 on the clay in 2022 and boasts back-to-back semi- and quarter final appearances in Madrid and Rome respectively. Teichmann finds herself in a nice pocket of the draw and while a potential third-round meeting with Victoria Azarenka does loom large, the Swiss is still over the odds in a quarter headlined by the injured Krejcikova.