Aryna Sabalenka looks to win her third consecutive Australian Open title, and although her draw isn’t easy the Belarussian is a huge show.
Champion
Featuring in the toughest half of the draw, but still don’t think that’s going to be an issue for Aryna Sabalenka.
Going for an Australian Open three-peat, the Belarussian is 41-8 on hard court over the last 52 weeks which also includes winning the US Open.
Being in the same quarter as Qinwen isn’t ideal, but she holds a 5-0 record over the Chinese, while if Coco Gauff is to emerge from the second quarter it will setup a huge Semi Final which will likely be much better quality than the Final itself.
Runner Up
Record at the Australian Open is poor, which doesn’t entirely make sense because Iga Swiatek’s numbers on hard court are comparable to that of Sabalenka.
The second half of this women’s draw is the easiest I’ve seen for a very long time, with no real contenders whatsoever – the seeds are either out of form or not at the level of other seeds, and there doesn’t appear to be any unseeded players that can cause shockwaves through the draw.
That being said – it’s still not straight forward for Swiatek. She’ll likely face a top-50 player all the way through the draw, but there’s no significant dangers there that if she plays to her best she really should advance to her first Australian Open Final.
Semi Finalists
The second quarter is the quarter from hell in this draw – Gauff, former champion Kenin, Fernandez, Muchova, Osaka, Garcia, Bencic, Ostapenko, Badosa, Kostyuk, Samsonova, Mertens and Pegula!
I think the Spaniard can emerge at a nice price. Badosa was sensational at last year’s US Open reaching the Quarter Final and re-captured her form in 2024.
With a 17-8 record since the start of August plus tight three-set losses to Gauff, Swiatek and Pegula, the Spaniard has the game to challenge the contenders coming out of this quarter.
Is now a proven performer at majors off the back of reaching the Final at the French Open and Wimbledon along with a Round of 16 run at last year’s US Open.
Q4 is weak, but Q3 is even softer. Rybakina is the standout but her performances at majors the last 12 months were average including a second-round Australian Open exit, while the Kazakh has plenty going on off the court with a coaching split in the headlines.
Outside of Paolini, it’s hard to find contenders to emerge. Madison Keys is the other likely candidate, but she’s flat out choked with Grand Slam expectation a number of times now. The Italian is a genuine warrior, and with a winning record over both Keys and Rybakina.
Roughies
Polarising player – we could easily see the Brazilian exit in the first-round, but when she’s on she’s very good.
Beatriz Haddad Maia features in the soft third quarter, and impressed at the US Open with a Quarter Final run eventually going down to the quality of Muchova.
Lead-in form has been poor, but someone needs to emerge from this third quarter and with question marks over just about all of the contenders in this quarter, there’s no reason why it can’t be the Brazilian.
Nice price for Pegula considering she was a Finalist at last year’s US Open and really took it to Sabalenka.
In the quarter from hell alongside Badosa, but does avoid Gauff and Muchova till the Quarter Final stage.
Feel like the American broke out in a way at last year’s US Open, where she’s always been a Quarter Final specialist at majors and had a bit of a stigma that she couldn’t make deep runs for a top-ranked player, but off the back of that performance at Flushing Meadows there’s no reason she can’t make a similar run in Australia.
