Carlos Alcaraz faces hometown hero Cam Norrie in the Wimbledon Quarter Final – can the Brit put up a fight in front of his home crowd?
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Best Bet
A well-earned break for Taylor Fritz with Jordan Thompson retiring after a set and a half into their Round of 16 clash, and the American now faces Karen Khachanov.
The Russian surprisingly won in convincing fashion in the fourth-round, but on-paper it was a regulation match-up. In fact, Khachanov has only played one played inside the top-80 this tournament – and that opponent he trailed 5-2 in the fifth set to.
Fritz has never beaten Khachanov, but both meetings were over five years ago when the Russian was an established player and Fritz was hovering outside the top-25. The roles are reversed now, and the way Fritz has been playing he should be winning this in three of four sets.
Next Best
Both players tend to go over the total games, and don’t think this Quarter Final will be any exception.
Pavlyuchenkova extended her total games overs run to eight straight grass matches this year, while Anisimova’s last three matches have gone overs.
The pair have met three times across their career – Anisimova leads 3-0 including beating the Russian twice last year, with both of last year’s matches going over 21.5 games. The American should win this, but three sets wouldn’t surprise.
Value Bet
The Brit has played well against Alcaraz across their career, which includes winning their most recent encounter on clay in 2023.
From their last four matches, Norrie has won two of them and taken a set in another, with the Brit beating Alcaraz in their last hard court meeting in Cincinnati in 2022.
Alcaraz is used to being a crowd favourite wherever he plays, but this won’t be the case against Norrie at Wimbledon. He’s been well below is lofty standards so far this tournament, and has dropped a set in three of his four matches so far – his only straight sets win against the Brit ranked 733rd in the second round.
The Spaniard should get it done, but I don’t mind Alcaraz to win 3-2 sets paying $7.25.
Multi
Fritz (M) / Anisimova (W) / Sabalenka 2-0 (W) = $2.20
