Alex De Minaur faces one of the best to ever do it in Novak Djokovic in the fourth round – what can we expect from the Aussie?
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Best Bet
Couldn’t believe my eyes when I saw this total games line. De Minaur has been solid this Wimbledon, but he’s beaten absolutely no one – two players ranked outside the top-100 and a clay-courter ranked 74 in the world who was just collecting a first-round pay check.
Djokovic has the best serve and return rating of all players this Wimbledon – yes, he’s currently got Sinner covered, which includes two top-50 opponents in Muller and Kecmanovic.
The elephant in the room is De Minaur’s inability to beat quality opponents – from his last 15 matches against top-10 players he’s 1-14 with his only win against Medvedev on clay last year, with majority of his losses in straight sets over this stretch.
Against top-10 opposition at majors he’s 2-11, with only two of the 13 matches going over 37.5 games – this was against Cilic in 2018 and Rublev in last year’s Australian Open so not exactly the upper echelon. Djokovic beat him 6-2 6-1 6-2 at the 2023 Australian Open, while Sinner beat him 6-3 6-2 6-1 at this year’s event – even if he pinches a set, this is a strong unders on the games.
Next Best
These two have had their fair share of battles, facing off for the third consecutive major and the fourth time across their career. The trend in each of these matches – over games, which has landed every time.
Both players have won a set on every occasion they’ve met, with this year’s Australian Open meeting landing at 45 total games across four sets, while their most recent meeting at the French Open went to five sets.
The concern is the potential fatigue to the Italian who comes off a marathon five-setter with Nakashima last round, but I can quite easily see Sonego strike early in the match against Shelton, who hasn’t really played anyone of substance so far this Wimbledon.
Rybakina was absolutely putrid against Tauson, but to the Dane’s credit she did show plenty of growth and maturity on this surface to think she can challenge Swiatek.
Surprisingly, the Pole hasn’t played a heap of grass court tennis against quality opposition over her career – mainly due to underperforming at Wimbledon to date with her best result a Quarter Final in 2023. But, Swiatek is just 6-6 on grass against top-40 opposition, while Tauson is 3-2 against top-40 in this grass court campaign alone.
I think the Dane can claim a set here, and even potentially a scalp.
Value Bet
Emma Navarro has been outstanding this Wimbledon, very much to my surprise, and is a great price against Mirra Andreeva.
The American did reach the Quarter Finals last year, while I’m still not 100% convinced that Andreeva is suited to grass.
The Russian is just 1-4 from her last five matches on the surface against top-30 opposition, and although she’s yet to drop a set this Wimbledon she’s faced three players ranked outside the top-50.
Andreeva smashed Navarro in their only career meeting, but this was off the back of Navarro making a deep Semi Final run the week prior, so happy to forgive and back the American in this.
Multi
Djokovic (M) / Shelton (M) / Samsonova (W) / Alexandrova (W) = $2.62
