Taylor Fritz has manoeuvred his way through a difficult draw, but he’s done the hard yards and the American’s draw has opened right up.
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Best Bet
If you look at the level of opposition Laura Siegemund is facing and convincingly beating, I thought we’d see the 37-year-old much shorter in this Round of 16 match.
The German faces the 21-year-old Argentine Sierra, who had played one grass court match prior to this Wimbledon campaign where she went through qualifying and only entered as a Lucky Loser.
Although she’s been great to get to this point, she hasn’t exactly come up against great players opposed to Siegemund who hasn’t dropped a set on her way to beating three top-40 players in Stearns, Fernandez and Keys. The step up for Sierra appears too much.
Next Best
For those that took Borges as our Day 5 value, it’s fair to think you’ve been robbed with the Portuguese leading 5-2 in the fifth set before Khachanov won in a fifth set tiebreaker.
The Russian is just so far off the level at the moment, he’s winning these matches purely based off experience.
On paper he should beat Kamil Majchrzak, but I just cannot see Khachanov winning this in regulation fashion based on how he’s been playing. The Pole will challenge him, and we could see another five-setter for the Russian.
Do this with some hesitance as I hold Anisimova tickets to win the quarter ($5.50) and tournament ($31), but the American really should be winning this.
Since July last year, Anisimova is 11-0 against opposition ranked between 21 and 40 – as for Noskova, she’s just 3-7 against top-50 opposition at majors with all three wins coming in her 2024 Australian Open run.
The Czech has done well to survive while all other seeds have fallen, but she hasn’t faced anyone of substance all ranked outside the top-60 where she’s covered just once. Expect the American to tighten up her game after a clumsy third-round win, and get after this Noskova serve.
Value Bet
He’s done the hard yards in the first three rounds, and incredibly Taylor Fritz’s run has got significantly easier.
He faces Australian Jordan Thompson who has been great considering his body is falling apart.
Despite the quality of Fritz’s opposition so far, his serve and return rating remains really strong, and with the American needing an easy match leading into the Quarter Final, I don’t think he’ll mess around against Thompson and get the job done in fast fashion.
Multi
Fritz (M) / Siegemund (W) / Anisimova (W) / Sabalenka (W) = $3.72
