It’s Day 1 of Wimbledon, and history might repeat itself with a top-five player facing an opponent that beat her in the first-round here in 2023.
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Best Bet
Been terrible this year, but perhaps the grass courts will get Roman Safiullin’s year back on track. The Russian reached the third-round last year and had Arthur Fils on toast, and was a Wimbledon Quarter Finalist in 2023 where he lost to Sinner in four sets.
I just can’t have Darderi getting close in this – he’s been equally as bad as the Russian this year, which includes completing the clay court surface where he easily plays his best tennis.
The Italian is 1-7 on grass across his career against players ranked inside the top-170 – his only win against Pedro Martinez who hasn’t won on grass in a completed match since 2021. If you’re looking for matches to watch on Day 1, this isn’t one of them – but this is worth a bet.
Next Best
Donna Vekic is certainly down on her monster 2024 campaign, but she was a Semi Finalist at Wimbledon last year, and although her form entering is poor she did play quality opposition and beat world number 12 Shnaider at Bad Homburg in the lead-up.
Vekic beat Birrell at the US Open last year covering this line, and although the Australian made a nice run to the Round of 16 at Eastbourne in the lead-up, her form prior to this was incredibly poor winning just one of her last nine matches against top-100 opposition.
Although all majors are important, this is vital for Vekic’s ranking and I expect the Croatian to be too good for the Australian with an easy cover.
What am I missing here? Varvara Gracheva enters Wimbledon off the back of reaching the Semi Finals in Eastbourne beating four opponents ranked higher than her, while Aliaksandra Sasnovich has hovered around 100-150 in the rankings for nearly two years now.
The Belarussian did well in qualifying, as she should, but think the Frenchwoman remains in the box seat.
Without setting the world on fire, she’s been solid in her last two appearances at Wimbledon reaching the second-round, where she took a set off Sabalenka in 2023 and lost in a third-set tiebreak against world 27 Dayana Yastremska last year. Like the price.
Now ranked 36 in the world, Rebecca Sramkova is having a breakout year as a 28-year-old, and enters Wimbledon playing good tennis reaching the Semi Final of Nottingham.
She faces Brazilian Beatriz Haddad Maia – her best is world class, her worst is a disaster. She has the game for grass and went 12-2 on the surface in 2022 where she was one of the dark horses for Wimbledon – but she lost in the first-round.
Sramkova has won two of their last three meetings – the most recent in February on hard courts in straight sets, so think the Slovak should cover this line.
Grass is the surface of choice of Katerina Siniakova, and she enters Wimbledon in good touch going 6-3 in the lead-up reaching the Round of 16 at both Berlin and Bad Homburg.
It’s a nightmare match-up for Qinwen Zheng. The Chinese really struggles on the surface, going 5-9 across her career winning just three of her last ten matches on grass – this includes a first-round loss to Siniakova at Wimbledon in 2023.
Siniakova has a 2-1 career record on Qinwen, with both those wins coming on grass including Berlin last year, with the Chinese being bunded out in the first-round the last two years. Danger alert for the world number five!
Value Bet
Zverev has never been comfortable on grass courts – it’s clearly his worst surface at all four majors with a 67% win record, with the other three majors above 74%, with his best result Round of 16 appearances in 2017, 2021 and last year.
He faces Frenchman Arthur Rinderknech, who enters this in reasonable form reaching the Quarter Final at Queen’s, challenging eventual winner Carlos Alcaraz.
From Zverev’s matches on grass courts this year, nine of the 18 sets he’s played have gone over 10.5 games, while Rinderknech has had 11 of his 21 sets going over this line on grass in 2025, which includes six first sets from his nine matches. Think the Frenchman can challenge early while Zverev is working his way through it, before the German kicks away.
Multi
Safiullin (M) / Rune (M) / FAA (M) / Keys (W) / Vekic (W) / Anisimova (W) = $5.10
