2025 Wimbledon Champion Iga Swiatek is one of the favourites to win this US Open title, but she could have her hands full against the in-form Ekaterina Alexandrova.
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Best Bet
On paper, it appears that Andrey Rublev has a complete stranglehold over Felix Auger Aliassime, but when you dig deeper the numbers tell a different story.
The Russian has a 7-1 career record over the Canadian including 4-1 on hard courts, but FAA has played well more often than not and in fact has a marginally better serve and return percentage across their five hard-court meetings against Rublev – 100.2% vs 99.8%.
FAA has covered in four of their five matches, but the key trend here is the overs. In all five hard court matches they’ve played across their career it has gone over the total games. Four of the five matches have gone to deciders, while from the 14 sets they’ve played on hard courts nine have gone to 7 games. This could be a long match, and I’m leaning towards the Canadian as underdog in five.
Next Best
This could be a real upset – historical record and current form is not my concern, it’s more so Alexandrova’s record at majors where she’s 0-12 against top-20 opposition.
That being said, the Russian has the best serve and return percentage of all players left in the draw at 123%, and has played well against Swiatek over their career.
Alexandrova beat the Wimbledon Champion in their most recent hard court meeting in Miami last year, and has covered the game handicap in five of their six meetings across their career.
Swiatek has been slightly off this US Open so far – we know it’s hard to do the Wimbledon / US Open double, could this be the Pole’s stumbling block?
Value Bet
Musetti has been outstanding this US Open – somewhat surprisingly with his injury concerns and form leading into Flushing Meadows.
He now faces a tricky opponent in Spain’s Juame Munar, who is now a career-high live ranking of 37 in the world – so playing career best tennis at the age of 28.
The issue Musetti has here is the career record against Munar. The Spaniard leads 4-1 over the journey, with that record being 2-1 since Musetti has been a top-20 player. The Italian won at Wimbledon in 2023, but more recently in their only hard court meeting earlier in the year at Hong Kong, Munar won 2-6 7-6 7-5.
Even if the Spaniard doesn’t win this, I expect him to cover the game handicap.
Multi
FAA vs Rublev Over 3.5 Sets (M) / De Minaur (M) / Muchova (W) / Anisimova (W) = $2.94
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