Andrey Rublev has performed well at majors across his career, but could he be challenged by a qualifier that has reached the third round in his first major?
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Best Bet
Andrey Rublev will face his third consecutive opponent ranked outside the top 100, but the Russian hasn’t been all that convincing in his first two rounds and I think qualifier Coleman Wong can challenge the temperamental Rublev.
In his last 11 matches against players ranked outside the top 100 at majors, the average games for Rublev has been 36.7, going over 33.5 games in eight of those matches.
Wong has been playing well – Walton has been in good form, and Kovacevic isn’t an easy first up match at his home major. I think he takes a set off the Russian, or potentially does even more damage.
Next Best
Think the market has got this wrong – I’d have the Brazilian as the $1.60 favourite in this instead of Sakkari.
The Greek has been great in the first two matches of this US Open, but not exactly against significant opposition. The problem with Sakkari is when she does this, we think she’s back – we’ve seen this movie before though.
Haddad Maia was a Quarter Finalist here last year so there’s added motivation to defend points, and she’s got a 4-0 career record over Sakkari – she’s beaten the Greek three times when the Greek was cemented in the top-ten. She wins this at the price of $2.32.
I hate backing against Karolina Muchova who is a favourite of mine, but she’s just not at the level at the moment with another injury-riddled year.
Noskova is a strong hard court performer and will be well rested after her second-round opponent retired during the second set, but the damage had been done by the Czech.
With a 5-3 record against top-20 opposition on hard courts this year, I think she gets the better of her countrywoman who just seems extremely underdone.
Value Bet
Ranked absolutely nowhere – you need to scroll down the page 435 rows in fact, but Leandro Riedi has been playing well this US Open including defeating top-20 player Francisco Cerundolo in the second round.
The thing with Riedi that defies his ranking, is his performances against players ranked 40-100 across his career which sits at 11-9, and since Wimbledon 2023 that record improves to 8-3.
Kamil Majchrzak has been in great form, but I’d rather be in the Swiss’ corner at this price.
Multi
Musetti (M) / Munar (M) / Noskova (W) / Kostyuk (W) / Osaka (W) / Alexandrova (W) = $6.67
