It’s been four years since Emma Raducanu made a fairytale run winning the US Open as a qualifier – can she get past a top-10 player to advance at Flushing Meadows?
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Best Bet
Despite advancing to the third round with relative ease, the numbers aren’t as flattering for Frances Tiafoe this US Open.
The American was in a genuine battle with fellow American Martin Damm Jr who is ranked 431 in the world – with three of their four set match going to 7 games.
Struff has built up some momentum here going through qualifying, beating Rune in the second-round. The German has challenged Tiafoe in the three matches across their career – their most recent contest going to three in Stuttgart including two tiebreaks, while Struff beat the American in a five-setter at Roland Garros in 2020. If this goes to four, it goes over the total games.
Next Best
I did have Paolini coming out of this quarter and despite winning both matches in straight sets, she hasn’t quite been at the level heading into this clash with Vondrousova.
The Czech is looking good – her second-round opponent McCartney Kessler is not an easy match-up with Vondrousova winning in straight sets.
Think the heavy top-spin game of the Czech could cause some major issues for the short Paolini, and I’m surprised she isn’t entering this as favourite.
A career win for Aussie Priscilla Hon beating Samsonova in the second-round, but think this is where her run comes to an end.
American Ann Li has moved inside the top-60 this year, and enters Flushing Meadows in strong form reaching the Final in Cleveland.
She’s taken the scalps of two top-40 players already this US Open, and at her home major I think she’ll get the better of Hon in this, who might struggle to back up the performance off the back of the wave of adrenalin.
Value Bet
This is the type of match Rybakina has been losing at majors for a while now. The Kazakh is 2-3 against top-40 opposition at majors this year – most recently a loss to Tauson in the third-round at Wimbledon.
Raducanu has been dominant in her first two rounds this US Open, and showed enough in Cincinnati that she’s getting back to her best where she lost to Sabalenka 6-7 6-4 6-7.
You’d have to think that Flushing Meadows is one of her favourite places to play after her miracle run in 2021 – I think she’s a chance to make another deep run this US Open.
Multi
Machac (M) / Shelton (M) / Vondrousova (W) / Li (W) / Andreeva (W) / Sabalenka (W) = $4.72
