Some big names could be in trouble against some tricky second-round opponents, while an unheralded Australian should be on his way to the third-round.
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Best Bet
Despite the convincing straight sets win by Tommy Paul in the first round, it won’t be easy to back-up when he faces Nuno Borges.
Paul’s numbers look good on paper in 2025, but against top-60 opposition he’s just 1-5 on hard courts including losses to Cerundolo and Shapovalov.
Borges on the other hand is 6-6 on hard court against the top-60 this year, and had the in-form Karen Khachanov buried and dead in the Wimbledon third-round. The Portuguese is extremely dangerous, and more than capable of upsetting the underdone Tommy Paul.
Next Best
Eva Lys will face Linda Noskova again, after meeting at Wimbledon this year – the latter won, but it was far from regulation going to three sets.
Noskova is a tricky one – highly talented with some big scalps over her young career, but she’s struggled to win the matches she should. In 2025, Noskova is 2-6 against players ranked 41-80 on hard courts.
As for Lys, the German is 2-0 against players ranked 21-50 on hard courts this year, and although she’s never beaten Noskova across her career, in both completed matches she’s covered the +4.5 game handicap. I think she could turn the tables and upset the Czech.
Haddad Maia – the queen of the total games overs. 13 of the Brazilian’s last 20 matches have gone to three sets, all of those going over 21.5 total games, while three of the seven straight sets results also went over 21.5 games – in total 80% of her last 20 matches have covered 21.5 total games.
She faces Viktorija Golubic who has had the better of Haddad Maia across their career with a 4-1 record – mainly done on the challenger circuit though.
From their five matches, four have gone over 21.5 games with their most recent meeting going short – this still landed at 21 games though. I think this goes the distance.
Solid year on paper for Xin Yu Wang, but her numbers don’t stack up especially on hard court. The Chinese is 1-7 against top-60 opposition on hard courts this year and it hasn’t been close.
In six of those seven losses she’s failed to win a set, and she comes up against the in-form Alexandrova.
The Russian has moved to a career-high 12th in the world off the back of a 36-18 record, and had a solid lead-up reaching the Final in Monterrey. Should be too good.
Walton’s recent form has been strong. He’s beaten Medvedev and Humbert now in this North American hard court swing, while also beating solid performers in Bonzi and Navone. To go with this, the Australian challenged Lehecka and performed well against Zverev.
It’s been an epic run by Hong Kong’s Coleman Wong through qualifying and he’s in the form of his life, but the world 173 hasn’t set the world on fire at challenger level this year on hard courts now at 17-12 in 2025.
Walton played Wong in Miami earlier in the year and won in three sets – both players are better now, but I think the Australian will be too good.
Value Bet
This is a strong Stefanos Tsitsipas fade. The Greek is 11-11 since Indiana Wells and playing the worst tennis of his career, barely stringing together back-to-back wins over this period.
The Muller win made a bit of sense as the Frenchman had been just as bad as Tsitsipas, but Altmaier is a fighter and dangerous.
The German performs well at majors and has a giant killer reputation – he reached the Round of 16 this year at the French Open including a win over Taylor Fritz, and has previously beaten Jannik Sinner at Roland Garros. He’s good enough to trouble Tsitsipas, which might be enough to win this.
Multi
Khachanov (M) / Walton (M) / Alexandrova (W) / Stearns (W) / Krueger (W) = $6.43
