Can a big serving Frenchman cause an upset on Day 3 of the US Open when he faces another top-10 player in the first round of a major?
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Best Bet
Turning back the clock a bit, taking the veteran here in Roberto Bautista-Agut. The Spaniard showed enough in the lead-up with a third-round run at Cincinnati losing to the in-form Ben Shelton, but he did challenge the American.
Jacob Fearnley started 2025 strong but has really struggled in the back half of the year, winning one of his last seven matches – this was against a world number 730.
The Brit also retired in the challenger in Sumter – it’s hard to see him competing in a best of five against the experience of RBA.
Next Best
On paper, a sensational year for Bublik and he enters this winning both Gstaad and Kitzbuhel which is probably why he’s a reasonably heavy favourite against Marin Cilic – the catch is, both tournaments were on clay and he played one player inside the top-100 who was ranked 74 in the world.
Despite being 35-17 this year, Bublik is just 7-10 on hard courts and hasn’t played on the surface since March.
Although Cilic hasn’t played since Wimbledon, his form there was strong and has played well at Flushing Meadows over his career – he was the 2014 Champion. Holding a 3-0 career record over Bublik when both ranked fairly similar, I think the Croatian gets it done.
It’s a huge game handicap for Tommy Paul considering the injury concerns and form line of late.
The American has played little tennis on this hard court swing and has won just two of his last six matches dating back to the French Open – emphasising how little he has played while battling injury.
Moller is a clay-courter, but at least he’s been playing and winning of late taking out the Iasi Challenger in July. The American should still win, but he’s clearly struggling which makes this line extremely long.
An incredible run at Wimbledon for the veteran reaching the Quarter Final and taking it to world number one Aryna Sabalenka. Although the German hasn’t done much since, she is still 3-2 leading into the US Open where she’ll face Diana Shnaider.
The Russian had a great run at Monterrey last week winning the title and she needed it. Prior to that she had won just one of her last six matches – the title in Monterrey taking her hard court record to 11-10 this year.
Shnaider doesn’t blow opponents away which makes this game handicap too long for mine. From her 21 hard court matches this year, she’s covered -4.5 game handicap on just three occasions. I can see Siegemund beating Shnaider in this off the back of a full week of tennis last week.
The Spaniard has stepped up her game in 2025, reaching the third-round of the French Open, Round of 16 at Wimbledon and has performed very well in the lead-up to the US Open.
Bouzas Maneiro made the Quarter Final of Montreal, and then backed it up with a Round of 16 run at Cincinnati.
Her first-round opponent here is Donna Vekic – 12 months ago you would take the Croatian in a heartbeat, but her form in 2025 has been poor with an 11-19 record including a 3-7 record against top-50 opposition on hard courts.
Winning just four of her last 13 matches, it’s hard to see Vekic get past the in-form Spaniard.
Value Bet
Big serving Frenchman who really should have beaten Taylor Fritz in the first-round at Wimbledon.
It was an important week at Winston Salem for Mpetshi Perricard to record some wins leading into Flushing Meadows, where he’ll face world number 10 Lorenzo Musetti.
The Italian is far from 100% fit – he had a huge run at Roland Garros reaching the Semi Final where he was forced to retire in the fourth set against Alcaraz, and has only managed five matches since. From those matches he’s played he’s 1-4 without facing anyone inside the top-30.
Huge opportunity for the big Frenchman to take Musetti’s path in the draw and make a strong run at a major.
Multi
Bautista Agut (M) / Medjedovic (M) / Borges (M) / Noskova (W) / Bouzas Maneiro (W) = $6.63
